Trader consensus favors United Russia securing the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election at 68.5% implied probability, driven by its incumbency advantages in the 225 single-member districts despite party-list polls dipping to 29–41% in recent state surveys from VCIOM and FOM. New People's rise to second place at around 10% in a March 21 VTsIOM poll and 10.4% in VCIOM's March 19–22 data has boosted its 22.9% odds as a potential challenger among systemic opposition parties, amid economic pressures eroding support for United Russia, LDPR (9–11%), and KPRF (8–10%). United Russia acknowledges risks in up to 30 competitive regions, with party lists and primaries shaping the proportional 225 seats under the 5% threshold. Late shifts remain possible before the vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакая партия получит наибольшее количество мест на парламентских выборах в России?
Какая партия получит наибольшее количество мест на парламентских выборах в России?
Единая Россия (ЕР) 69%
Новые люди (NL) 22.9%
Либерально-демократическая партия России (ЛДПР) 6.2%
Коммунистическая партия Российской Федерации (КПРФ) 1.3%
$4,401,240 Объем
$4,401,240 Объем
Sep 30, 2026
Единая Россия (ЕР)
69%
Новые люди (NL)
23%
Либерально-демократическая партия России (ЛДПР)
6%
Коммунистическая партия Российской Федерации (КПРФ)
1%
Справедливая Россия — За правду (СРЗП)
1%
Родина
<1%
Гражданская платформа (ГП)
<1%
Единая Россия (ЕР) 69%
Новые люди (NL) 22.9%
Либерально-демократическая партия России (ЛДПР) 6.2%
Коммунистическая партия Российской Федерации (КПРФ) 1.3%
$4,401,240 Объем
$4,401,240 Объем
Sep 30, 2026
Единая Россия (ЕР)
$1,222,042 Объем
69%
Новые люди (NL)
$277,041 Объем
23%
Либерально-демократическая партия России (ЛДПР)
$2,034,578 Объем
6%
Коммунистическая партия Российской Федерации (КПРФ)
$254,852 Объем
1%
Справедливая Россия — За правду (СРЗП)
$226,929 Объем
1%
Родина
$196,173 Объем
<1%
Гражданская платформа (ГП)
$189,627 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus favors United Russia securing the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election at 68.5% implied probability, driven by its incumbency advantages in the 225 single-member districts despite party-list polls dipping to 29–41% in recent state surveys from VCIOM and FOM. New People's rise to second place at around 10% in a March 21 VTsIOM poll and 10.4% in VCIOM's March 19–22 data has boosted its 22.9% odds as a potential challenger among systemic opposition parties, amid economic pressures eroding support for United Russia, LDPR (9–11%), and KPRF (8–10%). United Russia acknowledges risks in up to 30 competitive regions, with party lists and primaries shaping the proportional 225 seats under the 5% threshold. Late shifts remain possible before the vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Открытие рынка: Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Объем
$4,401,240Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus favors United Russia securing the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election at 68.5% implied probability, driven by its incumbency advantages in the 225 single-member districts despite party-list polls dipping to 29–41% in recent state surveys from VCIOM and FOM. New People's rise to second place at around 10% in a March 21 VTsIOM poll and 10.4% in VCIOM's March 19–22 data has boosted its 22.9% odds as a potential challenger among systemic opposition parties, amid economic pressures eroding support for United Russia, LDPR (9–11%), and KPRF (8–10%). United Russia acknowledges risks in up to 30 competitive regions, with party lists and primaries shaping the proportional 225 seats under the 5% threshold. Late shifts remain possible before the vote.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Объем
$4,401,240Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors United Russia securing the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election at 68.5% implied probability, driven by its incumbency advantages in the 225 single-member districts despite party-list polls dipping to 29–41% in recent state surveys from VCIOM and FOM. New People's rise to second place at around 10% in a March 21 VTsIOM poll and 10.4% in VCIOM's March 19–22 data has boosted its 22.9% odds as a potential challenger among systemic opposition parties, amid economic pressures eroding support for United Russia, LDPR (9–11%), and KPRF (8–10%). United Russia acknowledges risks in up to 30 competitive regions, with party lists and primaries shaping the proportional 225 seats under the 5% threshold. Late shifts remain possible before the vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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