Lebanon's parliament voted 76-52 on March 9 to postpone May parliamentary elections by two years amid the intensifying Israel-Hezbollah war, injecting major uncertainty into the proportional representation contest for 128 confessional seats and fragmenting trader consensus across outcomes. Lebanese Forces leads at 14% implied probability, buoyed by its staunch anti-Hezbollah platform, robust Christian base, and recent campaign launch, amid polls showing 79-94% Lebanese disapproval of Hezbollah—especially among Christians and Sunnis—following the group's military degradation. Ba'ath's 8% reflects potential gains from post-Assad Syria shifts and pro-Syrian alliances, while Hezbollah languishes at 2.5% due to setbacks. Consolidation hinges on ceasefire progress, Shia opposition momentum challenging Amal-Hezbollah dominance, diaspora voting rules, and coalition negotiations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель парламентских выборов в Ливане
Победитель парламентских выборов в Ливане
Ливанские силы (ЛС) 14%
Арабская социалистическая партия Баас в Ливане (Баас) 8.1%
Хезболла (Хезб) 2.5%
Движение Амаль (Амаль) 1.7%
$212,851 Объем
$212,851 Объем
Ливанские силы (ЛС)
14%
Арабская социалистическая партия Баас в Ливане (Баас)
8%
Хезболла (Хезб)
3%
Движение Амаль (Амаль)
2%
Партия Такаддом
2%
Ассоциация исламских благотворительных проектов (ICPA)
1%
ReLebanon
1%
Движение достоинства (ДД)
1%
Армянская революционная федерация (АРФ)
1%
Партия Катаиб (Катаиб)
1%
Прогрессивно-социалистическая партия (ПСП)
1%
Движение независимости (ДН)
1%
Свободное патриотическое движение (СПД)
<1%
Партия Союз (ПС)
<1%
Движение Марада (MM)
<1%
Национальная либеральная партия (НЛП)
<1%
Народная Насеристская организация (ПНО)
<1%
Лана – Социал-демократическая партия (Лана)
<1%
Альянс Ватани (Watani)
<1%
Исламская группа (ИГ)
<1%
Хатт Ахмар
<1%
Партия национального диалога (ПНД)
<1%
Партия Мада (Mada)
<1%
Ливанские силы (ЛС) 14%
Арабская социалистическая партия Баас в Ливане (Баас) 8.1%
Хезболла (Хезб) 2.5%
Движение Амаль (Амаль) 1.7%
$212,851 Объем
$212,851 Объем
Ливанские силы (ЛС)
14%
Арабская социалистическая партия Баас в Ливане (Баас)
8%
Хезболла (Хезб)
3%
Движение Амаль (Амаль)
2%
Партия Такаддом
2%
Ассоциация исламских благотворительных проектов (ICPA)
1%
ReLebanon
1%
Движение достоинства (ДД)
1%
Армянская революционная федерация (АРФ)
1%
Партия Катаиб (Катаиб)
1%
Прогрессивно-социалистическая партия (ПСП)
1%
Движение независимости (ДН)
1%
Свободное патриотическое движение (СПД)
<1%
Партия Союз (ПС)
<1%
Движение Марада (MM)
<1%
Национальная либеральная партия (НЛП)
<1%
Народная Насеристская организация (ПНО)
<1%
Лана – Социал-демократическая партия (Лана)
<1%
Альянс Ватани (Watani)
<1%
Исламская группа (ИГ)
<1%
Хатт Ахмар
<1%
Партия национального диалога (ПНД)
<1%
Партия Мада (Mada)
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lebanon's parliament voted 76-52 on March 9 to postpone May parliamentary elections by two years amid the intensifying Israel-Hezbollah war, injecting major uncertainty into the proportional representation contest for 128 confessional seats and fragmenting trader consensus across outcomes. Lebanese Forces leads at 14% implied probability, buoyed by its staunch anti-Hezbollah platform, robust Christian base, and recent campaign launch, amid polls showing 79-94% Lebanese disapproval of Hezbollah—especially among Christians and Sunnis—following the group's military degradation. Ba'ath's 8% reflects potential gains from post-Assad Syria shifts and pro-Syrian alliances, while Hezbollah languishes at 2.5% due to setbacks. Consolidation hinges on ceasefire progress, Shia opposition momentum challenging Amal-Hezbollah dominance, diaspora voting rules, and coalition negotiations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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