Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back PB to claim the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, with implied probabilities reflecting consistent polling averages showing the new party—launched by former President Rumen Radev—at 29-31%, well ahead of incumbent GERB–SDS (19-21%) and PP–DB (11-13%). Recent Alpha Research and nowcast updates from early April confirm PB's nine-point lead, fueled by voter fatigue after eight elections in five years, anti-establishment sentiment amid the Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 resignation, and proportional representation dynamics projecting PB 85-95 seats out of 240. Under Bulgaria's system, the plurality winner often anchors coalition negotiations, though late scandals, polling errors, or anti-PB vote consolidation could narrow the gap before polls close.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоPB 91.2%
GERB–SDS 5.3%
PP–DB <1%
ITN <1%
$99,822 Объем
$99,822 Объем
19 апр. 2026 г.
PB
91%
GERB–SDS
5%
PP–DB
1%
ITN
<1%
Velichie
<1%
MECH
<1%
Возрождение
<1%
DPS
<1%
APS
<1%
БСП-Объединённые левые
<1%
PB 91.2%
GERB–SDS 5.3%
PP–DB <1%
ITN <1%
$99,822 Объем
$99,822 Объем
19 апр. 2026 г.
PB
$26,480 Объем
91%
GERB–SDS
$12,383 Объем
5%
PP–DB
$9,684 Объем
1%
ITN
$8,150 Объем
<1%
Velichie
$7,402 Объем
<1%
MECH
$8,224 Объем
<1%
Возрождение
$6,441 Объем
<1%
DPS
$4,252 Объем
<1%
APS
$9,908 Объем
<1%
БСП-Объединённые левые
$6,898 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back PB to claim the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, with implied probabilities reflecting consistent polling averages showing the new party—launched by former President Rumen Radev—at 29-31%, well ahead of incumbent GERB–SDS (19-21%) and PP–DB (11-13%). Recent Alpha Research and nowcast updates from early April confirm PB's nine-point lead, fueled by voter fatigue after eight elections in five years, anti-establishment sentiment amid the Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 resignation, and proportional representation dynamics projecting PB 85-95 seats out of 240. Under Bulgaria's system, the plurality winner often anchors coalition negotiations, though late scandals, polling errors, or anti-PB vote consolidation could narrow the gap before polls close.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Открытие рынка: Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ET
Объем
$99,822Дата окончания
19 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back PB to claim the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, with implied probabilities reflecting consistent polling averages showing the new party—launched by former President Rumen Radev—at 29-31%, well ahead of incumbent GERB–SDS (19-21%) and PP–DB (11-13%). Recent Alpha Research and nowcast updates from early April confirm PB's nine-point lead, fueled by voter fatigue after eight elections in five years, anti-establishment sentiment amid the Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 resignation, and proportional representation dynamics projecting PB 85-95 seats out of 240. Under Bulgaria's system, the plurality winner often anchors coalition negotiations, though late scandals, polling errors, or anti-PB vote consolidation could narrow the gap before polls close.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly as a result of this election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. If no abbreviation is listed, the listed name will be used.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Объем
$99,822Дата окончания
19 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 1:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back PB to claim the most seats in Bulgaria's April 19 snap parliamentary election, with implied probabilities reflecting consistent polling averages showing the new party—launched by former President Rumen Radev—at 29-31%, well ahead of incumbent GERB–SDS (19-21%) and PP–DB (11-13%). Recent Alpha Research and nowcast updates from early April confirm PB's nine-point lead, fueled by voter fatigue after eight elections in five years, anti-establishment sentiment amid the Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 resignation, and proportional representation dynamics projecting PB 85-95 seats out of 240. Under Bulgaria's system, the plurality winner often anchors coalition negotiations, though late scandals, polling errors, or anti-PB vote consolidation could narrow the gap before polls close.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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