Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.7% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the #2 AI model on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by March 31, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6-thinking's firm hold at #1 and the base Claude Opus 4.6 at #2 with a 1500 Elo score, unchanged since its early March release amid a flurry of competitor launches like xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (#4 at 1491 Elo) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (#3 at 1493). This positioning reflects superior demonstrated capabilities in substance-focused evaluations that neutralize verbosity biases. Challenges could arise from a surprise update to Grok or Gemini before snapshot, or leaderboard volatility from new battles, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past week.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакая компания имеет модель искусственного интеллекта №2 в конце марта? (Управление стилем включено)
Какая компания имеет модель искусственного интеллекта №2 в конце марта? (Управление стилем включено)
Anthropic 97.0%
xAI 1.7%
DeepSeek <1%
OpenAI <1%
$506,655 Объем
$506,655 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
97%
xAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
OpenAI
<1%
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 97.0%
xAI 1.7%
DeepSeek <1%
OpenAI <1%
$506,655 Объем
$506,655 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$46,104 Объем
97%
xAI
$21,355 Объем
2%
DeepSeek
$90,091 Объем
1%
OpenAI
$90,319 Объем
<1%
$58,288 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$54,758 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$23,244 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$110,675 Объем
<1%
Alibaba
$11,821 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$0 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.7% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the #2 AI model on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by March 31, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6-thinking's firm hold at #1 and the base Claude Opus 4.6 at #2 with a 1500 Elo score, unchanged since its early March release amid a flurry of competitor launches like xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (#4 at 1491 Elo) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (#3 at 1493). This positioning reflects superior demonstrated capabilities in substance-focused evaluations that neutralize verbosity biases. Challenges could arise from a surprise update to Grok or Gemini before snapshot, or leaderboard volatility from new battles, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past week.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Объем
$506,655Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.7% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the #2 AI model on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by March 31, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6-thinking's firm hold at #1 and the base Claude Opus 4.6 at #2 with a 1500 Elo score, unchanged since its early March release amid a flurry of competitor launches like xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (#4 at 1491 Elo) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (#3 at 1493). This positioning reflects superior demonstrated capabilities in substance-focused evaluations that neutralize verbosity biases. Challenges could arise from a surprise update to Grok or Gemini before snapshot, or leaderboard volatility from new battles, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past week.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$506,655Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.7% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the #2 AI model on the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by March 31, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6-thinking's firm hold at #1 and the base Claude Opus 4.6 at #2 with a 1500 Elo score, unchanged since its early March release amid a flurry of competitor launches like xAI's Grok-4.20 beta (#4 at 1491 Elo) and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (#3 at 1493). This positioning reflects superior demonstrated capabilities in substance-focused evaluations that neutralize verbosity biases. Challenges could arise from a surprise update to Grok or Gemini before snapshot, or leaderboard volatility from new battles, though no such catalysts have emerged in the past week.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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