Polymarket traders price a 37% implied probability for OpenAI's IPO closing market cap in the 750B–1T range, closely trailed by 31% for no IPO by December 31, 2027, reflecting uncertainty over execution amid aggressive expansion. A blockbuster $120 billion funding round closed this month at an $850 billion post-money valuation—bolstered by $25 billion annualized revenue—has fueled IPO momentum, with reports of Q4 2026 listing preparations including a new investor relations hire. However, projected $19 billion 2026 cash burn, a lengthy path to profitability beyond 2030, and intensifying competition from Anthropic temper enthusiasm for trillion-dollar outcomes, positioning trader consensus around high-but-not stratospheric valuations as key differentiators hinge on cost controls and enterprise adoption ahead of potential regulatory scrutiny.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоБез IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года 33%
1,5Т+ 27%
1–1,25 трлн 20%
<500 млрд 7%
$13,675 Объем
$13,675 Объем
Dec 31, 2027
<500 млрд
7%
500–750 млрд
-
750 млрд – 1 трлн
35%
1–1,25 трлн
20%
1,25–1,5 трлн
16%
1,5Т+
27%
Без IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года
33%
Без IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года 33%
1,5Т+ 27%
1–1,25 трлн 20%
<500 млрд 7%
$13,675 Объем
$13,675 Объем
Dec 31, 2027
<500 млрд
$0 Объем
7%
500–750 млрд
$0 Объем
-
750 млрд – 1 трлн
$37 Объем
35%
1–1,25 трлн
$2,790 Объем
20%
1,25–1,5 трлн
$105 Объем
16%
1,5Т+
$0 Объем
27%
Без IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года
$10,742 Объем
33%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders price a 37% implied probability for OpenAI's IPO closing market cap in the 750B–1T range, closely trailed by 31% for no IPO by December 31, 2027, reflecting uncertainty over execution amid aggressive expansion. A blockbuster $120 billion funding round closed this month at an $850 billion post-money valuation—bolstered by $25 billion annualized revenue—has fueled IPO momentum, with reports of Q4 2026 listing preparations including a new investor relations hire. However, projected $19 billion 2026 cash burn, a lengthy path to profitability beyond 2030, and intensifying competition from Anthropic temper enthusiasm for trillion-dollar outcomes, positioning trader consensus around high-but-not stratospheric valuations as key differentiators hinge on cost controls and enterprise adoption ahead of potential regulatory scrutiny.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Открытие рынка: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Объем
$13,675Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2027Открытие рынка
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket traders price a 37% implied probability for OpenAI's IPO closing market cap in the 750B–1T range, closely trailed by 31% for no IPO by December 31, 2027, reflecting uncertainty over execution amid aggressive expansion. A blockbuster $120 billion funding round closed this month at an $850 billion post-money valuation—bolstered by $25 billion annualized revenue—has fueled IPO momentum, with reports of Q4 2026 listing preparations including a new investor relations hire. However, projected $19 billion 2026 cash burn, a lengthy path to profitability beyond 2030, and intensifying competition from Anthropic temper enthusiasm for trillion-dollar outcomes, positioning trader consensus around high-but-not stratospheric valuations as key differentiators hinge on cost controls and enterprise adoption ahead of potential regulatory scrutiny.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Объем
$13,675Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2027Открытие рынка
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 37% implied probability for OpenAI's IPO closing market cap in the 750B–1T range, closely trailed by 31% for no IPO by December 31, 2027, reflecting uncertainty over execution amid aggressive expansion. A blockbuster $120 billion funding round closed this month at an $850 billion post-money valuation—bolstered by $25 billion annualized revenue—has fueled IPO momentum, with reports of Q4 2026 listing preparations including a new investor relations hire. However, projected $19 billion 2026 cash burn, a lengthy path to profitability beyond 2030, and intensifying competition from Anthropic temper enthusiasm for trillion-dollar outcomes, positioning trader consensus around high-but-not stratospheric valuations as key differentiators hinge on cost controls and enterprise adoption ahead of potential regulatory scrutiny.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы