With the April 12 parliamentary election two weeks away, trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors TISZA at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting recent polls like Median's March 25 survey showing the party leading 58% to Fidesz-KDNP's 35% among decided voters—a widening gap from prior readings. Péter Magyar's TISZA has sustained momentum from unifying fragmented opposition support, bolstered by a massive March 15 rally drawing hundreds of thousands amid voter fatigue with Viktor Orbán's 16-year incumbent rule. Fidesz trails at 33.5% as undecided voters decline and tilt toward the challenger, though Hungary's mixed system of single-member districts and proportional representation leaves room for turnout swings or late scandals to shift seat counts toward a potential Tisza majority.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель парламентских выборов в Венгрии
Победитель парламентских выборов в Венгрии
ТИСА 67%
Фидес–ХДНП 34%
Моментум <1%
ДК <1%
$49,035,364 Объем
$49,035,364 Объем
Apr 12, 2026
ТИСА
67%
Фидес–ХДНП
34%
Моментум
<1%
ДК
<1%
LMP
<1%
MSZP
<1%
Mi Hazánk
<1%
Партбесед
<1%
Йоббик
<1%
ХДНП
<1%
ТИСА 67%
Фидес–ХДНП 34%
Моментум <1%
ДК <1%
$49,035,364 Объем
$49,035,364 Объем
Apr 12, 2026
ТИСА
$873,559 Объем
67%
Фидес–ХДНП
$1,148,776 Объем
34%
Моментум
$603,692 Объем
<1%
ДК
$4,876,095 Объем
<1%
LMP
$14,325,703 Объем
<1%
MSZP
$456,332 Объем
<1%
Mi Hazánk
$475,211 Объем
<1%
Партбесед
$7,088,495 Объем
<1%
Йоббик
$14,796,693 Объем
<1%
ХДНП
$4,390,807 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With the April 12 parliamentary election two weeks away, trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors TISZA at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting recent polls like Median's March 25 survey showing the party leading 58% to Fidesz-KDNP's 35% among decided voters—a widening gap from prior readings. Péter Magyar's TISZA has sustained momentum from unifying fragmented opposition support, bolstered by a massive March 15 rally drawing hundreds of thousands amid voter fatigue with Viktor Orbán's 16-year incumbent rule. Fidesz trails at 33.5% as undecided voters decline and tilt toward the challenger, though Hungary's mixed system of single-member districts and proportional representation leaves room for turnout swings or late scandals to shift seat counts toward a potential Tisza majority.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Открытие рынка: Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ET
Объем
$49,035,364Дата окончания
Apr 12, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).With the April 12 parliamentary election two weeks away, trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors TISZA at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting recent polls like Median's March 25 survey showing the party leading 58% to Fidesz-KDNP's 35% among decided voters—a widening gap from prior readings. Péter Magyar's TISZA has sustained momentum from unifying fragmented opposition support, bolstered by a massive March 15 rally drawing hundreds of thousands amid voter fatigue with Viktor Orbán's 16-year incumbent rule. Fidesz trails at 33.5% as undecided voters decline and tilt toward the challenger, though Hungary's mixed system of single-member districts and proportional representation leaves room for turnout swings or late scandals to shift seat counts toward a potential Tisza majority.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Объем
$49,035,364Дата окончания
Apr 12, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 3:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With the April 12 parliamentary election two weeks away, trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors TISZA at 66.5% implied probability, reflecting recent polls like Median's March 25 survey showing the party leading 58% to Fidesz-KDNP's 35% among decided voters—a widening gap from prior readings. Péter Magyar's TISZA has sustained momentum from unifying fragmented opposition support, bolstered by a massive March 15 rally drawing hundreds of thousands amid voter fatigue with Viktor Orbán's 16-year incumbent rule. Fidesz trails at 33.5% as undecided voters decline and tilt toward the challenger, though Hungary's mixed system of single-member districts and proportional representation leaves room for turnout swings or late scandals to shift seat counts toward a potential Tisza majority.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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