Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities peaking at 28.5% for 30°C, 28.0% for 29°C, and 22.0% for 28°C amid an ongoing heat wave gripping southeast Brazil. Recent INMET and CPTEC guidance shows a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds and favoring subsidence, which has driven late-March highs 3–5°C above the 26°C April climatological average, but model ensembles diverge on afternoon sea-breeze development and convective showers that could cap peaks at 28°C versus allowing urban heat island effects to push toward 30°C. Fading La Niña conditions add variability to frontal timing, with daily updates expected to refine odds as resolution nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 4?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 4?
30°C 29%
29°C 27%
28°C 26%
31°C 17%
25°C or below
13%
26°C
10%
27°C
17%
28°C
26%
29°C
27%
30°C
29%
31°C
17%
32°C
14%
33°C
12%
34°C
10%
35°C or higher
11%
30°C 29%
29°C 27%
28°C 26%
31°C 17%
25°C or below
13%
26°C
10%
27°C
17%
28°C
26%
29°C
27%
30°C
29%
31°C
17%
32°C
14%
33°C
12%
34°C
10%
35°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 4, with implied probabilities peaking at 28.5% for 30°C, 28.0% for 29°C, and 22.0% for 28°C amid an ongoing heat wave gripping southeast Brazil. Recent INMET and CPTEC guidance shows a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge suppressing clouds and favoring subsidence, which has driven late-March highs 3–5°C above the 26°C April climatological average, but model ensembles diverge on afternoon sea-breeze development and convective showers that could cap peaks at 28°C versus allowing urban heat island effects to push toward 30°C. Fading La Niña conditions add variability to frontal timing, with daily updates expected to refine odds as resolution nears.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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