Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 27°C (99.9% implied probability) for Hong Kong's highest temperature on April 3, 2026, anchored by the Hong Kong Observatory's (HKO) official measurement of a maximum air temperature of 27.1°C at its King's Park headquarters. This aligns precisely with the Observatory's late April 2 forecast projecting a 27°C high amid a trough of low pressure bringing showers to Guangdong but dry conditions at the site (0 mm rainfall), moderate southeasterly winds, and high humidity (77-91%). Regional stations like Tai Po reached 29.6°C, but the market resolves on HKO's core reading. Realistic challenges—such as rare post hoc data revisions from instrument calibration—remain negligible given the precision of HKO's automated observations and historical consistency.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Hong Kong on April 3?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 3?
27°C 99.9%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$223,520 Объем
$223,520 Объем
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
27°C 99.9%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$223,520 Объем
$223,520 Объем
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 29, 2026, 3:55 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 27°C (99.9% implied probability) for Hong Kong's highest temperature on April 3, 2026, anchored by the Hong Kong Observatory's (HKO) official measurement of a maximum air temperature of 27.1°C at its King's Park headquarters. This aligns precisely with the Observatory's late April 2 forecast projecting a 27°C high amid a trough of low pressure bringing showers to Guangdong but dry conditions at the site (0 mm rainfall), moderate southeasterly winds, and high humidity (77-91%). Regional stations like Tai Po reached 29.6°C, but the market resolves on HKO's core reading. Realistic challenges—such as rare post hoc data revisions from instrument calibration—remain negligible given the precision of HKO's automated observations and historical consistency.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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