Market-implied odds show 97.2% trader consensus for Chicago's highest temperature on April 8 reaching 50°F or higher, backed by National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model agreement projecting daytime highs near 55-60°F amid a mild early-spring pattern. This positioning stems from recent 48-hour model runs confirming persistent upper-level ridging over the Midwest, promoting warm southerly flow and above-normal temperatures consistent with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center spring outlook favoring warmer-than-average conditions through mid-April. Chicago's April 8 climatological normal high is 56°F, aligning with this trajectory. New observational data from O'Hare International Airport—Chicago's official measuring station—will resolve the market. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen cold front or stalled low-pressure system increasing cloud cover and northerly winds, potentially capping highs below 50°F, though ensemble forecast spreads remain narrow with low probability for such shifts ahead of tomorrow's NWS 12z update.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Chicago on April 8?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 8?
50°F or higher 97.2%
48-49°F 1.3%
36-37°F <1%
34-35°F <1%
НОВОЕ
$27,023 Объем
НОВОЕ
$27,023 Объем
8 апр. 2026 г.
31°F or below
<1%
32-33°F
<1%
34-35°F
<1%
36-37°F
<1%
38-39°F
<1%
40-41°F
<1%
42-43°F
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
1%
50°F or higher
97%
50°F or higher 97.2%
48-49°F 1.3%
36-37°F <1%
34-35°F <1%
НОВОЕ
$27,023 Объем
НОВОЕ
$27,023 Объем
8 апр. 2026 г.
31°F or below
$1,258 Объем
<1%
32-33°F
$2,764 Объем
<1%
34-35°F
$2,446 Объем
<1%
36-37°F
$1,926 Объем
<1%
38-39°F
$2,603 Объем
<1%
40-41°F
$2,059 Объем
<1%
42-43°F
$2,612 Объем
<1%
44-45°F
$2,137 Объем
<1%
46-47°F
$2,470 Объем
<1%
48-49°F
$2,725 Объем
1%
50°F or higher
$4,022 Объем
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds show 97.2% trader consensus for Chicago's highest temperature on April 8 reaching 50°F or higher, backed by National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model agreement projecting daytime highs near 55-60°F amid a mild early-spring pattern. This positioning stems from recent 48-hour model runs confirming persistent upper-level ridging over the Midwest, promoting warm southerly flow and above-normal temperatures consistent with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center spring outlook favoring warmer-than-average conditions through mid-April. Chicago's April 8 climatological normal high is 56°F, aligning with this trajectory. New observational data from O'Hare International Airport—Chicago's official measuring station—will resolve the market. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen cold front or stalled low-pressure system increasing cloud cover and northerly winds, potentially capping highs below 50°F, though ensemble forecast spreads remain narrow with low probability for such shifts ahead of tomorrow's NWS 12z update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Объем
$27,023Дата окончания
8 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Market-implied odds show 97.2% trader consensus for Chicago's highest temperature on April 8 reaching 50°F or higher, backed by National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model agreement projecting daytime highs near 55-60°F amid a mild early-spring pattern. This positioning stems from recent 48-hour model runs confirming persistent upper-level ridging over the Midwest, promoting warm southerly flow and above-normal temperatures consistent with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center spring outlook favoring warmer-than-average conditions through mid-April. Chicago's April 8 climatological normal high is 56°F, aligning with this trajectory. New observational data from O'Hare International Airport—Chicago's official measuring station—will resolve the market. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen cold front or stalled low-pressure system increasing cloud cover and northerly winds, potentially capping highs below 50°F, though ensemble forecast spreads remain narrow with low probability for such shifts ahead of tomorrow's NWS 12z update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$27,023Дата окончания
8 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 4, 2026, 12:11 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds show 97.2% trader consensus for Chicago's highest temperature on April 8 reaching 50°F or higher, backed by National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model agreement projecting daytime highs near 55-60°F amid a mild early-spring pattern. This positioning stems from recent 48-hour model runs confirming persistent upper-level ridging over the Midwest, promoting warm southerly flow and above-normal temperatures consistent with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center spring outlook favoring warmer-than-average conditions through mid-April. Chicago's April 8 climatological normal high is 56°F, aligning with this trajectory. New observational data from O'Hare International Airport—Chicago's official measuring station—will resolve the market. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen cold front or stalled low-pressure system increasing cloud cover and northerly winds, potentially capping highs below 50°F, though ensemble forecast spreads remain narrow with low probability for such shifts ahead of tomorrow's NWS 12z update.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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