Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at its April 24 meeting, driven by the central bank's recent easing cycle amid sustained disinflation. The Board cut rates by 50 basis points in both February (to 15.5%) and March (to 15.0% per annum), citing February's annual inflation slowdown to 5.9% from January's 6.0%, with 2026 forecasts at 4.5%-5.5% versus the 4% target next year. Slowing GDP growth projections (now 0.8%) further support looser monetary policy. Challenges could arise from upside inflation surprises in March data or rising household expectations (13.4% in March), prompting a hold or hike if proinflationary risks reemerge.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоРешение Банка России в апреле?
Решение Банка России в апреле?
Снижение 92%
Без изменений 8%
Повышение <1%
$40,929 Объем
$40,929 Объем
Снижение
92%
Без изменений
8%
Повышение
<1%
Снижение 92%
Без изменений 8%
Повышение <1%
$40,929 Объем
$40,929 Объем
Снижение
92%
Без изменений
8%
Повышение
<1%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its April 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their April 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its April 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their April 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at its April 24 meeting, driven by the central bank's recent easing cycle amid sustained disinflation. The Board cut rates by 50 basis points in both February (to 15.5%) and March (to 15.0% per annum), citing February's annual inflation slowdown to 5.9% from January's 6.0%, with 2026 forecasts at 4.5%-5.5% versus the 4% target next year. Slowing GDP growth projections (now 0.8%) further support looser monetary policy. Challenges could arise from upside inflation surprises in March data or rising household expectations (13.4% in March), prompting a hold or hike if proinflationary risks reemerge.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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