Trader consensus prices a near-certain government shutdown (98%) alongside Democratic House control in 2026 at 82.5%, driven by the December 20 continuing resolution averting crisis only until March 14, 2025, when funding expires amid debt ceiling suspension ending January 2025. House GOP hardliners, backed by President-elect Trump and Elon Musk's calls for $2 trillion spending cuts, clash with Democratic Senate majorities unwilling to concede on non-defense discretionary funding, echoing near-shutdowns in September and December 2024. Separately, Democrats' edge for 2026 midterms reflects historical 27-seat midterm losses for the president's party, Republicans' vulnerable 220-215 majority, and battleground district dynamics favoring challengers in a likely low-turnout cycle. Key catalysts ahead: January debt ceiling talks and February appropriations deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЕще одно закрытие правительства США и победитель в 2026 году?
Еще одно закрытие правительства США и победитель в 2026 году?
$209,602 Объем
$209,602 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Остановка правительства и Демократическая партия
83%
Остановка правительства и Республиканская партия
15%
$209,602 Объем
$209,602 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Остановка правительства и Демократическая партия
$0 Объем
83%
Остановка правительства и Республиканская партия
$0 Объем
15%
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus prices a near-certain government shutdown (98%) alongside Democratic House control in 2026 at 82.5%, driven by the December 20 continuing resolution averting crisis only until March 14, 2025, when funding expires amid debt ceiling suspension ending January 2025. House GOP hardliners, backed by President-elect Trump and Elon Musk's calls for $2 trillion spending cuts, clash with Democratic Senate majorities unwilling to concede on non-defense discretionary funding, echoing near-shutdowns in September and December 2024. Separately, Democrats' edge for 2026 midterms reflects historical 27-seat midterm losses for the president's party, Republicans' vulnerable 220-215 majority, and battleground district dynamics favoring challengers in a likely low-turnout cycle. Key catalysts ahead: January debt ceiling talks and February appropriations deadlines.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Открытие рынка: Dec 9, 2025, 1:44 PM ET
Объем
$209,602Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 9, 2025, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus prices a near-certain government shutdown (98%) alongside Democratic House control in 2026 at 82.5%, driven by the December 20 continuing resolution averting crisis only until March 14, 2025, when funding expires amid debt ceiling suspension ending January 2025. House GOP hardliners, backed by President-elect Trump and Elon Musk's calls for $2 trillion spending cuts, clash with Democratic Senate majorities unwilling to concede on non-defense discretionary funding, echoing near-shutdowns in September and December 2024. Separately, Democrats' edge for 2026 midterms reflects historical 27-seat midterm losses for the president's party, Republicans' vulnerable 220-215 majority, and battleground district dynamics favoring challengers in a likely low-turnout cycle. Key catalysts ahead: January debt ceiling talks and February appropriations deadlines.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Объем
$209,602Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 9, 2025, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a near-certain government shutdown (98%) alongside Democratic House control in 2026 at 82.5%, driven by the December 20 continuing resolution averting crisis only until March 14, 2025, when funding expires amid debt ceiling suspension ending January 2025. House GOP hardliners, backed by President-elect Trump and Elon Musk's calls for $2 trillion spending cuts, clash with Democratic Senate majorities unwilling to concede on non-defense discretionary funding, echoing near-shutdowns in September and December 2024. Separately, Democrats' edge for 2026 midterms reflects historical 27-seat midterm losses for the president's party, Republicans' vulnerable 220-215 majority, and battleground district dynamics favoring challengers in a likely low-turnout cycle. Key catalysts ahead: January debt ceiling talks and February appropriations deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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