Ongoing Western sanctions and firm G7 opposition to Russia's reintegration, reinforced by Canada's announcement of additional measures against Moscow's shadow fleet eight days ago and the March 25 foreign ministers' meeting in France focusing on global security without readmission signals, underpin the 91.9% implied probability against Russia rejoining before 2027. Despite U.S. President Trump's February 2025 suggestion linking reinstatement to Ukraine peace—which drew immediate pushback from Germany and France, with Chancellor Merz stressing no consensus among the six other members—the Ukraine war persists, as affirmed in the G7 leaders' February statement welcoming negotiation efforts but imposing severe costs on Russia. Readmission requires unanimous agreement amid diplomatic isolation, with no recent concessions or invitations altering trader consensus on formidable barriers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
Sim
If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.
A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:25 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.
A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Western sanctions and firm G7 opposition to Russia's reintegration, reinforced by Canada's announcement of additional measures against Moscow's shadow fleet eight days ago and the March 25 foreign ministers' meeting in France focusing on global security without readmission signals, underpin the 91.9% implied probability against Russia rejoining before 2027. Despite U.S. President Trump's February 2025 suggestion linking reinstatement to Ukraine peace—which drew immediate pushback from Germany and France, with Chancellor Merz stressing no consensus among the six other members—the Ukraine war persists, as affirmed in the G7 leaders' February statement welcoming negotiation efforts but imposing severe costs on Russia. Readmission requires unanimous agreement amid diplomatic isolation, with no recent concessions or invitations altering trader consensus on formidable barriers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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