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A Rússia voltará ao G7 antes de 2027?

Market icon

A Rússia voltará ao G7 antes de 2027?

dez 31

dez 31

Sim

8% acaso
Polymarket
NOVO

Sim

8% acaso
Polymarket
NOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7. A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing Western sanctions and firm G7 opposition to Russia's reintegration, reinforced by Canada's announcement of additional measures against Moscow's shadow fleet eight days ago and the March 25 foreign ministers' meeting in France focusing on global security without readmission signals, underpin the 91.9% implied probability against Russia rejoining before 2027. Despite U.S. President Trump's February 2025 suggestion linking reinstatement to Ukraine peace—which drew immediate pushback from Germany and France, with Chancellor Merz stressing no consensus among the six other members—the Ukraine war persists, as affirmed in the G7 leaders' February statement welcoming negotiation efforts but imposing severe costs on Russia. Readmission requires unanimous agreement amid diplomatic isolation, with no recent concessions or invitations altering trader consensus on formidable barriers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.

A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$8,557
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:25 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7. A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7. A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing Western sanctions and firm G7 opposition to Russia's reintegration, reinforced by Canada's announcement of additional measures against Moscow's shadow fleet eight days ago and the March 25 foreign ministers' meeting in France focusing on global security without readmission signals, underpin the 91.9% implied probability against Russia rejoining before 2027. Despite U.S. President Trump's February 2025 suggestion linking reinstatement to Ukraine peace—which drew immediate pushback from Germany and France, with Chancellor Merz stressing no consensus among the six other members—the Ukraine war persists, as affirmed in the G7 leaders' February statement welcoming negotiation efforts but imposing severe costs on Russia. Readmission requires unanimous agreement amid diplomatic isolation, with no recent concessions or invitations altering trader consensus on formidable barriers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7.

A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$8,557
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:25 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia officially rejoins the Group of Seven (G7) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the title of the group changes (e.g., to "G8"), this market will still resolve to "Yes" so long as that group remains functionally similar to the G7. A formal rejoining must be acknowledged by a consensus of G7 member states to qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from G7 member states, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"A Rússia voltará ao G7 antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "A Rússia voltará a integrar o G7 antes de 2027?" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"A Rússia voltará ao G7 antes de 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 13, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "A Rússia voltará ao G7 antes de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "A Rússia voltará ao G7 antes de 2027?" is "A Rússia voltará a integrar o G7 antes de 2027?" at just 8%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "A Rússia voltará ao G7 antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.