Russian air defenses have consistently foiled Ukrainian drone and missile attempts to impact Moscow municipality's ground territory, as seen in the mid-March barrage of over 250 drones downed before reaching the capital on March 15-16. This resilience amid Ukraine's successful long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure—like Ust-Luga port on March 31 and a Crimea airbase on April 2—drives trader consensus toward low near-term probabilities for a qualifying action. Reciprocal Russian escalations, including a record 948-drone assault on Ukraine on March 24, underscore mutual standoff capabilities without breakthrough. Barriers include robust layered defenses around Moscow, though intensified swarms or new Ukrainian munitions could shift dynamics ahead of key dates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$142,408 Vol.
15 abr 2026
15 de abril
1%
30 de abril
9%
$142,408 Vol.
15 de abril
$870 Vol.
1%
30 de abril
$1,995 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian armed forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Moscow municipality's soil by the listed date Moscow Standard Time (MSK). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Moscow municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Moscow municipality counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Moscow municipality's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Russian air defenses have consistently foiled Ukrainian drone and missile attempts to impact Moscow municipality's ground territory, as seen in the mid-March barrage of over 250 drones downed before reaching the capital on March 15-16. This resilience amid Ukraine's successful long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure—like Ust-Luga port on March 31 and a Crimea airbase on April 2—drives trader consensus toward low near-term probabilities for a qualifying action. Reciprocal Russian escalations, including a record 948-drone assault on Ukraine on March 24, underscore mutual standoff capabilities without breakthrough. Barriers include robust layered defenses around Moscow, though intensified swarms or new Ukrainian munitions could shift dynamics ahead of key dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian armed forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Moscow municipality's soil by the listed date Moscow Standard Time (MSK). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Moscow municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Moscow municipality counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Moscow municipality's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Moscow municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Moscow municipality counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Moscow municipality's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$142,408Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian armed forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Moscow municipality's soil by the listed date Moscow Standard Time (MSK). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Moscow municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Moscow municipality counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Moscow municipality's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Russian air defenses have consistently foiled Ukrainian drone and missile attempts to impact Moscow municipality's ground territory, as seen in the mid-March barrage of over 250 drones downed before reaching the capital on March 15-16. This resilience amid Ukraine's successful long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure—like Ust-Luga port on March 31 and a Crimea airbase on April 2—drives trader consensus toward low near-term probabilities for a qualifying action. Reciprocal Russian escalations, including a record 948-drone assault on Ukraine on March 24, underscore mutual standoff capabilities without breakthrough. Barriers include robust layered defenses around Moscow, though intensified swarms or new Ukrainian munitions could shift dynamics ahead of key dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian armed forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Moscow municipality's soil by the listed date Moscow Standard Time (MSK). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Moscow municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Moscow municipality counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Moscow municipality's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Moscow municipality's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Moscow municipality counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Moscow municipality's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$142,408Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 24, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian air defenses have consistently foiled Ukrainian drone and missile attempts to impact Moscow municipality's ground territory, as seen in the mid-March barrage of over 250 drones downed before reaching the capital on March 15-16. This resilience amid Ukraine's successful long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure—like Ust-Luga port on March 31 and a Crimea airbase on April 2—drives trader consensus toward low near-term probabilities for a qualifying action. Reciprocal Russian escalations, including a record 948-drone assault on Ukraine on March 24, underscore mutual standoff capabilities without breakthrough. Barriers include robust layered defenses around Moscow, though intensified swarms or new Ukrainian munitions could shift dynamics ahead of key dates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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