Recent diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran, including an interim agreement to halt active hostilities, has driven the near-certain trader consensus against a strike by France, the United Kingdom, or Germany before the June 30 deadline. European leaders have focused on defensive measures such as drone interceptions and sanctions relief tied to verifiable nuclear steps, while urging negotiations rather than offensive operations. With only days remaining and no reported preparations for independent strikes on Iranian territory, the market reflects the low likelihood of sudden escalation. A rapid breakdown in the emerging deal or a major new Iranian provocation could still shift the outcome in the narrow window.