Market icon
Geopolítica·Declarante

Um agente iraniano será acusado nos EUA até 30 de abril?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Declarante

Um agente iraniano será acusado nos EUA até 30 de abril?

Sim

9% acaso
Polymarket

$26,534 Vol.

Sim

9% acaso
Polymarket

$26,534 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Trader consensus prices "No" at 91%, reflecting the absence of any new Department of Justice indictments against Iranian agents or IRGC operatives since early March, when a previously charged individual—Asif Merchant, linked to an Iranian-backed assassination plot targeting U.S. politicians including Donald Trump—was convicted of terrorism and murder-for-hire. DOJ actions in recent weeks have focused on civil forfeitures against Iranian oil networks and domain seizures disrupting Ministry of Intelligence and Security cyber operations, but no fresh criminal charges have emerged. With the April 30 deadline approaching and no public announcements signaling imminent prosecutions, traders anticipate ongoing investigations will not yield indictments in time, despite persistent Iranian transnational repression threats.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$26,534
Data de Término
30 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Trader consensus prices "No" at 91%, reflecting the absence of any new Department of Justice indictments against Iranian agents or IRGC operatives since early March, when a previously charged individual—Asif Merchant, linked to an Iranian-backed assassination plot targeting U.S. politicians including Donald Trump—was convicted of terrorism and murder-for-hire. DOJ actions in recent weeks have focused on civil forfeitures against Iranian oil networks and domain seizures disrupting Ministry of Intelligence and Security cyber operations, but no fresh criminal charges have emerged. With the April 30 deadline approaching and no public announcements signaling imminent prosecutions, traders anticipate ongoing investigations will not yield indictments in time, despite persistent Iranian transnational repression threats.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$26,534
Data de Término
30 abr 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 11, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of any individual alleged to be acting as an agent of the Iranian government by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Iranian agent” refers to any individual alleged to be acting on behalf of, under the direction of, or in coordination with the Iranian government (including its military or intelligence services) to conduct espionage, collect intelligence, or perform other covert operations that benefit Iran. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Um agente iraniano será acusado nos EUA até 30 de abril?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Um agente iraniano será acusado nos EUA até 30 de abril?" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Um agente iraniano será acusado nos EUA até 30 de abril?" has generated $26.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Um agente iraniano será acusado nos EUA até 30 de abril?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Um agente iraniano será acusado nos EUA até 30 de abril?" is "Um agente iraniano será acusado nos EUA até 30 de abril?" at just 9%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Um agente iraniano será acusado nos EUA até 30 de abril?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.