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Política·Trump

Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?

Market icon
Política·Trump

Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?

dez 31

dez 31

$993,929 Vol.

31 dez 2026
Polymarket

$993,929 Vol.

Polymarket

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

$4,308 Vol.

76%

Kash Patel

$203,584 Vol.

74%

Kristi Noem

$86,928 Vol.

55%

Tulsi Gabbard

$47,631 Vol.

53%

Howard Lutnick

$59,358 Vol.

46%

Pete Hegseth

$59,907 Vol.

43%

Karoline Leavitt

$16,506 Vol.

41%

David Sacks

$7,270 Vol.

41%

Tom Homan

$58 Vol.

28%

Lee Zeldin

$26,456 Vol.

36%

Dan Scavino

$31 Vol.

34%

Susie Wiles

$42,201 Vol.

32%

John Ratcliffe

$0 Vol.

32%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$64,179 Vol.

31%

Russell Vought

$134 Vol.

26%

Stephen Miller

$810 Vol.

22%

Marco Rubio

$3,440 Vol.

20%

Scott Bessent

$853 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent dismissals of high-ranking Trump administration officials, including Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and reports of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stepping down, have fueled trader consensus on elevated probabilities for further departures before 2027, mirroring the high turnover patterns of Trump's first term. Policy rifts contributed to Joe Kent's March resignation as National Counterterrorism Center director amid Iran war dissent, while Acting ICE Director Todd Lyons resigned this week following House testimony on border enforcement. With President Trump signaling more cabinet changes and midterm elections approaching in November 2026, ongoing institutional pressures and executive reshuffles remain key catalysts for market pricing.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$993,929
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent dismissals of high-ranking Trump administration officials, including Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and reports of Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stepping down, have fueled trader consensus on elevated probabilities for further departures before 2027, mirroring the high turnover patterns of Trump's first term. Policy rifts contributed to Joe Kent's March resignation as National Counterterrorism Center director amid Iran war dissent, while Acting ICE Director Todd Lyons resigned this week following House testimony on border enforcement. With President Trump signaling more cabinet changes and midterm elections approaching in November 2026, ongoing institutional pressures and executive reshuffles remain key catalysts for market pricing.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$993,929
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Pam Bondi" at 100%, followed by "Dan Bongino" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?" has generated $993.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?" is "Pam Bondi" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dan Bongino" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quem deixará o governo Trump antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.