Market icon
Política·Trump

Quem será confirmado como Presidente do Fed?

Market icon
Política·Trump

Quem será confirmado como Presidente do Fed?

Kevin Warsh 96.6%

Judy Shelton 1.5%

Michelle Bowman <1%

Rick Reider <1%

Polymarket

$18,472,803 Vol.

Kevin Warsh 96.6%

Judy Shelton 1.5%

Michelle Bowman <1%

Rick Reider <1%

Polymarket

$18,472,803 Vol.

Kevin Warsh

$2,748,295 Vol.

97%

Judy Shelton

$8,300,961 Vol.

2%

Kevin Hassett

$680,118 Vol.

<1%

Christopher Waller

$580,470 Vol.

<1%

Jerome Powell

$830,482 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Miran

$621,069 Vol.

<1%

Scott Bessent

$1,987,596 Vol.

<1%

Rick Reider

$657,579 Vol.

<1%

Michelle Bowman

$2,068,670 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Kevin Warsh for confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair, reflecting President Trump's formal nomination on March 4 and his prior experience as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, which bolsters bipartisan appeal amid a Republican Senate majority. Recent Senate Banking Committee dynamics show minimal holds, with Polymarket side markets pricing high yes votes from key Republicans like Sen. Kevin Cramer at over 96%, signaling smooth procedural progress ahead of Powell's May 15 term end. Criticisms from Democrats, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren's March 26 letter decrying potential rate-cut bias, and reports of brief impasses tied to DOJ probes into Powell and geopolitical tensions like Iran have failed to dent odds. Realistic challenges include unexpected Senate filibusters, a major scandal surfacing at confirmation hearings, or Warsh withdrawal, though historical Fed confirmation rates exceed 90% for nominees with establishment ties.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,472,803
Data de Término
31 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Kevin Warsh for confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair, reflecting President Trump's formal nomination on March 4 and his prior experience as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011, which bolsters bipartisan appeal amid a Republican Senate majority. Recent Senate Banking Committee dynamics show minimal holds, with Polymarket side markets pricing high yes votes from key Republicans like Sen. Kevin Cramer at over 96%, signaling smooth procedural progress ahead of Powell's May 15 term end. Criticisms from Democrats, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren's March 26 letter decrying potential rate-cut bias, and reports of brief impasses tied to DOJ probes into Powell and geopolitical tensions like Iran have failed to dent odds. Realistic challenges include unexpected Senate filibusters, a major scandal surfacing at confirmation hearings, or Warsh withdrawal, though historical Fed confirmation rates exceed 90% for nominees with establishment ties.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,472,803
Data de Término
31 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quem será confirmado como Presidente do Fed?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin Warsh" at 97%, followed by "Judy Shelton" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quem será confirmado como Presidente do Fed?" has generated $18.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quem será confirmado como Presidente do Fed?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quem será confirmado como Presidente do Fed?" is "Kevin Warsh" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Judy Shelton" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quem será confirmado como Presidente do Fed?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.