The United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting ballistic missile sites, air defenses, nuclear facilities, and military leadership, initiating an ongoing war now in its fifth week with over 600 Israeli Defense Forces strikes and more than 10,000 U.S. targets hit. Recent developments include intensified U.S.-Israeli bombing of Tehran on March 29-30, Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states, and President Trump's March 30 suggestion of seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal. Diplomatic channels opened with a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan on March 24, which Iran is reviewing, amid signals of potential ground operations post-March 31. No other countries, such as the UK or Saudi Arabia, have conducted direct military action against Iran, leaving trader focus on confirmed strikes before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$10,859,381 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Arábia Saudita
3%
Catar
3%
Emirados Árabes Unidos
3%
Bahrein
2%
Jordânia
1%
Reino Unido
1%
Kuwait
1%
Turquia
1%
França
1%
Algum país da UE
1%
Omã
1%
Alemanha
<1%
Canadá
<1%
$10,859,381 Vol.
Arábia Saudita
$2,215,519 Vol.
3%
Catar
$950,260 Vol.
3%
Emirados Árabes Unidos
$2,858,966 Vol.
3%
Bahrein
$393,521 Vol.
2%
Jordânia
$189,690 Vol.
1%
Reino Unido
$948,392 Vol.
1%
Kuwait
$211,711 Vol.
1%
Turquia
$481,803 Vol.
1%
França
$750,377 Vol.
1%
Algum país da UE
$473,319 Vol.
1%
Omã
$132,169 Vol.
1%
Alemanha
$912,757 Vol.
<1%
Canadá
$340,897 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting ballistic missile sites, air defenses, nuclear facilities, and military leadership, initiating an ongoing war now in its fifth week with over 600 Israeli Defense Forces strikes and more than 10,000 U.S. targets hit. Recent developments include intensified U.S.-Israeli bombing of Tehran on March 29-30, Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states, and President Trump's March 30 suggestion of seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal. Diplomatic channels opened with a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan on March 24, which Iran is reviewing, amid signals of potential ground operations post-March 31. No other countries, such as the UK or Saudi Arabia, have conducted direct military action against Iran, leaving trader focus on confirmed strikes before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$10,859,381Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting ballistic missile sites, air defenses, nuclear facilities, and military leadership, initiating an ongoing war now in its fifth week with over 600 Israeli Defense Forces strikes and more than 10,000 U.S. targets hit. Recent developments include intensified U.S.-Israeli bombing of Tehran on March 29-30, Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states, and President Trump's March 30 suggestion of seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal. Diplomatic channels opened with a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan on March 24, which Iran is reviewing, amid signals of potential ground operations post-March 31. No other countries, such as the UK or Saudi Arabia, have conducted direct military action against Iran, leaving trader focus on confirmed strikes before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,859,381Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States and Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting ballistic missile sites, air defenses, nuclear facilities, and military leadership, initiating an ongoing war now in its fifth week with over 600 Israeli Defense Forces strikes and more than 10,000 U.S. targets hit. Recent developments include intensified U.S.-Israeli bombing of Tehran on March 29-30, Iranian retaliatory missile barrages on Israel and Gulf states, and President Trump's March 30 suggestion of seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal. Diplomatic channels opened with a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan on March 24, which Iran is reviewing, amid signals of potential ground operations post-March 31. No other countries, such as the UK or Saudi Arabia, have conducted direct military action against Iran, leaving trader focus on confirmed strikes before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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