US and Israel continue intensive airstrikes against Iranian military and industrial targets, including recent B-52 bomber raids on Tehran reported March 30, prompting Iranian missile and drone retaliations on US bases and infrastructure in Gulf states like Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar. GCC nations, alongside Britain, France, and Germany, have intercepted many projectiles in defensive operations but have not launched confirmed offensive strikes into Iran, despite weighing military options amid attacks on their critical assets. As the March 31 deadline nears, trader consensus reflects low expectations for additional countries joining offensively, bolstered by March 29 diplomatic talks involving major powers aiming for de-escalation before further escalation risks regional bases or Strait of Hormuz shipping.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$10,842,213 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Emirados Árabes Unidos
4%
Arábia Saudita
4%
Catar
2%
Bahrein
2%
Jordânia
1%
Reino Unido
1%
Kuwait
1%
Turquia
1%
França
1%
Algum país da UE
1%
Omã
1%
Alemanha
<1%
Canadá
<1%
$10,842,213 Vol.
Emirados Árabes Unidos
$2,854,668 Vol.
4%
Arábia Saudita
$2,208,667 Vol.
4%
Catar
$946,497 Vol.
2%
Bahrein
$392,924 Vol.
2%
Jordânia
$189,690 Vol.
1%
Reino Unido
$948,392 Vol.
1%
Kuwait
$211,675 Vol.
1%
Turquia
$481,803 Vol.
1%
França
$750,286 Vol.
1%
Algum país da UE
$473,070 Vol.
1%
Omã
$132,076 Vol.
1%
Alemanha
$912,757 Vol.
<1%
Canadá
$339,709 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel continue intensive airstrikes against Iranian military and industrial targets, including recent B-52 bomber raids on Tehran reported March 30, prompting Iranian missile and drone retaliations on US bases and infrastructure in Gulf states like Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar. GCC nations, alongside Britain, France, and Germany, have intercepted many projectiles in defensive operations but have not launched confirmed offensive strikes into Iran, despite weighing military options amid attacks on their critical assets. As the March 31 deadline nears, trader consensus reflects low expectations for additional countries joining offensively, bolstered by March 29 diplomatic talks involving major powers aiming for de-escalation before further escalation risks regional bases or Strait of Hormuz shipping.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$10,842,213Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israel continue intensive airstrikes against Iranian military and industrial targets, including recent B-52 bomber raids on Tehran reported March 30, prompting Iranian missile and drone retaliations on US bases and infrastructure in Gulf states like Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar. GCC nations, alongside Britain, France, and Germany, have intercepted many projectiles in defensive operations but have not launched confirmed offensive strikes into Iran, despite weighing military options amid attacks on their critical assets. As the March 31 deadline nears, trader consensus reflects low expectations for additional countries joining offensively, bolstered by March 29 diplomatic talks involving major powers aiming for de-escalation before further escalation risks regional bases or Strait of Hormuz shipping.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,842,213Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israel continue intensive airstrikes against Iranian military and industrial targets, including recent B-52 bomber raids on Tehran reported March 30, prompting Iranian missile and drone retaliations on US bases and infrastructure in Gulf states like Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar. GCC nations, alongside Britain, France, and Germany, have intercepted many projectiles in defensive operations but have not launched confirmed offensive strikes into Iran, despite weighing military options amid attacks on their critical assets. As the March 31 deadline nears, trader consensus reflects low expectations for additional countries joining offensively, bolstered by March 29 diplomatic talks involving major powers aiming for de-escalation before further escalation risks regional bases or Strait of Hormuz shipping.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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