Google's Gemini 2.0 Flash Experimental model holds a commanding third place on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—the gold standard for blind user-voted AI model rankings—with OpenAI's o1 series and Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet dominating the top two spots based on Elo scores reflecting real-world performance in reasoning, coding, and multilingual tasks. This positioning, solidified by Google's December announcements and subsequent benchmark validations, underpins the 97.4% market-implied probability, as traders back the stability of demonstrated capabilities amid a crowded field. Challenges could arise from xAI's anticipated Grok-3 release or surprise updates from OpenAI or Anthropic before March 31, potentially reshuffling rankings if they clear key hurdles like improved long-context reasoning or safety evals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o terceiro melhor modelo de IA no final de março?
Qual empresa tem o terceiro melhor modelo de IA no final de março?
Google 97.4%
xAI 2.1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$459,059 Vol.
$459,059 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
97%
xAI
2%
OpenAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Google 97.4%
xAI 2.1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$459,059 Vol.
$459,059 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$46,443 Vol.
97%
xAI
$30,044 Vol.
2%
OpenAI
$47,936 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$33,879 Vol.
<1%
Anthropic
$61,679 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$33,443 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$48,523 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$51,744 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$50,985 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$27,551 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$26,832 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini 2.0 Flash Experimental model holds a commanding third place on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—the gold standard for blind user-voted AI model rankings—with OpenAI's o1 series and Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet dominating the top two spots based on Elo scores reflecting real-world performance in reasoning, coding, and multilingual tasks. This positioning, solidified by Google's December announcements and subsequent benchmark validations, underpins the 97.4% market-implied probability, as traders back the stability of demonstrated capabilities amid a crowded field. Challenges could arise from xAI's anticipated Grok-3 release or surprise updates from OpenAI or Anthropic before March 31, potentially reshuffling rankings if they clear key hurdles like improved long-context reasoning or safety evals.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$459,059Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini 2.0 Flash Experimental model holds a commanding third place on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—the gold standard for blind user-voted AI model rankings—with OpenAI's o1 series and Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet dominating the top two spots based on Elo scores reflecting real-world performance in reasoning, coding, and multilingual tasks. This positioning, solidified by Google's December announcements and subsequent benchmark validations, underpins the 97.4% market-implied probability, as traders back the stability of demonstrated capabilities amid a crowded field. Challenges could arise from xAI's anticipated Grok-3 release or surprise updates from OpenAI or Anthropic before March 31, potentially reshuffling rankings if they clear key hurdles like improved long-context reasoning or safety evals.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$459,059Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Google's Gemini 2.0 Flash Experimental model holds a commanding third place on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard—the gold standard for blind user-voted AI model rankings—with OpenAI's o1 series and Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet dominating the top two spots based on Elo scores reflecting real-world performance in reasoning, coding, and multilingual tasks. This positioning, solidified by Google's December announcements and subsequent benchmark validations, underpins the 97.4% market-implied probability, as traders back the stability of demonstrated capabilities amid a crowded field. Challenges could arise from xAI's anticipated Grok-3 release or surprise updates from OpenAI or Anthropic before March 31, potentially reshuffling rankings if they clear key hurdles like improved long-context reasoning or safety evals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions