Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to tech layoffs rising in 2026 versus 2025, fueled by Q1's unprecedented 78,000–92,000 job cuts across 230+ events—already surpassing many prior quarters—as tracked by Layoffs.fyi and TrueUp. Major drivers include AI-driven automation at firms like Oracle (30,000 cuts), Amazon (16,000), and Meta, enabling workforce restructuring amid massive investments in AI infrastructure despite strong revenues. Nearly half of cuts explicitly tie to AI efficiencies, per reports, with daily averages hitting 900+. This pace projects annual totals well above 2025's ~165,000–250,000. Challenges could arise from unexpected economic booms spurring hiring or regulatory curbs on AI deployment, though traders see slim odds amid ongoing cost pressures and no hiring rebound signals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoDemissões de tecnologia para cima ou para baixo em 2026?
Demissões de tecnologia para cima ou para baixo em 2026?
Aumentarão
$22,704 Vol.
$22,704 Vol.
28 fev 2027
Aumentarão
$22,704 Vol.
$22,704 Vol.
28 fev 2027
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.
If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to tech layoffs rising in 2026 versus 2025, fueled by Q1's unprecedented 78,000–92,000 job cuts across 230+ events—already surpassing many prior quarters—as tracked by Layoffs.fyi and TrueUp. Major drivers include AI-driven automation at firms like Oracle (30,000 cuts), Amazon (16,000), and Meta, enabling workforce restructuring amid massive investments in AI infrastructure despite strong revenues. Nearly half of cuts explicitly tie to AI efficiencies, per reports, with daily averages hitting 900+. This pace projects annual totals well above 2025's ~165,000–250,000. Challenges could arise from unexpected economic booms spurring hiring or regulatory curbs on AI deployment, though traders see slim odds amid ongoing cost pressures and no hiring rebound signals.
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.
If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.
If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$22,704Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.
If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to tech layoffs rising in 2026 versus 2025, fueled by Q1's unprecedented 78,000–92,000 job cuts across 230+ events—already surpassing many prior quarters—as tracked by Layoffs.fyi and TrueUp. Major drivers include AI-driven automation at firms like Oracle (30,000 cuts), Amazon (16,000), and Meta, enabling workforce restructuring amid massive investments in AI infrastructure despite strong revenues. Nearly half of cuts explicitly tie to AI efficiencies, per reports, with daily averages hitting 900+. This pace projects annual totals well above 2025's ~165,000–250,000. Challenges could arise from unexpected economic booms spurring hiring or regulatory curbs on AI deployment, though traders see slim odds amid ongoing cost pressures and no hiring rebound signals.
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.
If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026.
If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$22,704Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to tech layoffs rising in 2026 versus 2025, fueled by Q1's unprecedented 78,000–92,000 job cuts across 230+ events—already surpassing many prior quarters—as tracked by Layoffs.fyi and TrueUp. Major drivers include AI-driven automation at firms like Oracle (30,000 cuts), Amazon (16,000), and Meta, enabling workforce restructuring amid massive investments in AI infrastructure despite strong revenues. Nearly half of cuts explicitly tie to AI efficiencies, per reports, with daily averages hitting 900+. This pace projects annual totals well above 2025's ~165,000–250,000. Challenges could arise from unexpected economic booms spurring hiring or regulatory curbs on AI deployment, though traders see slim odds amid ongoing cost pressures and no hiring rebound signals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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