OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro commands near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the top AI model in math as of March 31, 2026, driven by its dominant performance on key benchmarks like MATH-500 (99.4%), AIME 2026 (100%), and USAMO 2026 (95%), saturating frontiers once challenging for large language models. Recent March releases, including GPT-5.4's "Thinking" variant with enhanced reasoning chains and 1M-token context, outpaced rivals like Claude Opus 4.6 (97.6% on weighted math scores) and DeepSeek V4 amid an avalanche of 20+ frontier models. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects verified leaderboard supremacy from MathArena and BenchLM. Realistic challenges include last-minute competitor updates or revised evals revealing ties, though rapid benchmark saturation limits upside surprises today.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQual empresa terá o melhor modelo de IA para matemática em 31 de março?
Qual empresa terá o melhor modelo de IA para matemática em 31 de março?
OpenAI 100.0%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$499,119 Vol.
$499,119 Vol.

Não

OpenAI
Sim

Z.ai
Não

DeepSeek
Não

Mistral
Não

Anthropic
Não

Alibaba
Não

xAI
Não

Moonshot
Não
OpenAI 100.0%
Google <1%
Z.ai <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$499,119 Vol.
$499,119 Vol.

Não

OpenAI
Sim

Z.ai
Não

DeepSeek
Não

Mistral
Não

Anthropic
Não

Alibaba
Não

xAI
Não

Moonshot
Não
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 1:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro commands near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for the top AI model in math as of March 31, 2026, driven by its dominant performance on key benchmarks like MATH-500 (99.4%), AIME 2026 (100%), and USAMO 2026 (95%), saturating frontiers once challenging for large language models. Recent March releases, including GPT-5.4's "Thinking" variant with enhanced reasoning chains and 1M-token context, outpaced rivals like Claude Opus 4.6 (97.6% on weighted math scores) and DeepSeek V4 amid an avalanche of 20+ frontier models. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects verified leaderboard supremacy from MathArena and BenchLM. Realistic challenges include last-minute competitor updates or revised evals revealing ties, though rapid benchmark saturation limits upside surprises today.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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