Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 97.5% for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest by June 30, 2026, driven by the complete absence of any credible reports of criminal investigations, indictments, charges, or DOJ actions against him. Recent tensions stem from Anthropic's public refusal to grant unrestricted Pentagon access to its Claude AI models—citing ethical limits on domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons—prompting the Defense Department to designate the firm a supply chain risk in early March 2026 and bar federal contracts. Anthropic responded with federal lawsuits challenging the move as retaliatory, but these remain civil matters without personal criminal liability for Amodei. Scenarios that could shift odds include unforeseen indictments from a special counsel probe, leaked evidence of wrongdoing, or escalation tying the CEO to alleged violations, though no such developments have surfaced in the past 30 days.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$141,827 Vol.
$141,827 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$141,827 Vol.
$141,827 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 97.5% for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest by June 30, 2026, driven by the complete absence of any credible reports of criminal investigations, indictments, charges, or DOJ actions against him. Recent tensions stem from Anthropic's public refusal to grant unrestricted Pentagon access to its Claude AI models—citing ethical limits on domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons—prompting the Defense Department to designate the firm a supply chain risk in early March 2026 and bar federal contracts. Anthropic responded with federal lawsuits challenging the move as retaliatory, but these remain civil matters without personal criminal liability for Amodei. Scenarios that could shift odds include unforeseen indictments from a special counsel probe, leaked evidence of wrongdoing, or escalation tying the CEO to alleged violations, though no such developments have surfaced in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volume
$141,827Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 97.5% for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest by June 30, 2026, driven by the complete absence of any credible reports of criminal investigations, indictments, charges, or DOJ actions against him. Recent tensions stem from Anthropic's public refusal to grant unrestricted Pentagon access to its Claude AI models—citing ethical limits on domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons—prompting the Defense Department to designate the firm a supply chain risk in early March 2026 and bar federal contracts. Anthropic responded with federal lawsuits challenging the move as retaliatory, but these remain civil matters without personal criminal liability for Amodei. Scenarios that could shift odds include unforeseen indictments from a special counsel probe, leaked evidence of wrongdoing, or escalation tying the CEO to alleged violations, though no such developments have surfaced in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$141,827Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 97.5% for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest by June 30, 2026, driven by the complete absence of any credible reports of criminal investigations, indictments, charges, or DOJ actions against him. Recent tensions stem from Anthropic's public refusal to grant unrestricted Pentagon access to its Claude AI models—citing ethical limits on domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons—prompting the Defense Department to designate the firm a supply chain risk in early March 2026 and bar federal contracts. Anthropic responded with federal lawsuits challenging the move as retaliatory, but these remain civil matters without personal criminal liability for Amodei. Scenarios that could shift odds include unforeseen indictments from a special counsel probe, leaked evidence of wrongdoing, or escalation tying the CEO to alleged violations, though no such developments have surfaced in the past 30 days.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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