Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weights large language model underpins the 99.8% market-implied odds, as it led multiple coding, agentic, and long-context benchmarks on arena.ai and Artificial Analysis while rivaling top U.S. systems and spurring developer downloads plus ARR growth past $300 million. This performance widened its edge over peers including Alibaba’s Qwen series, DeepSeek, and Z.ai on tracked capability metrics ahead of the August 31 resolution. A late-August model release or leaderboard update from another lab that overtakes Kimi K3 on the specific arena.ai Text Arena overall ranking remains the main scenario that could shift consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSegunda melhor empresa chinesa de IA no final de agosto?
Segunda melhor empresa chinesa de IA no final de agosto?
Moonshot 100.0%
Alibaba <1%
Baidu <1%
Z.ai <1%
$153,326 Vol.
$153,326 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Alibaba
Não
Moonshot
Sim
Baidu
Não
Z.ai
Não
Xiaomi
Não
DeepSeek
Não
ByteDance
Não
MiniMax
Não
Meituan
Não
Tencent
Não
StepFun
Não
Moonshot 100.0%
Alibaba <1%
Baidu <1%
Z.ai <1%
$153,326 Vol.
$153,326 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Alibaba
$17,128 Vol.
Não
Moonshot
$45,422 Vol.
Sim
Baidu
$9,315 Vol.
Não
Z.ai
$33,592 Vol.
Não
Xiaomi
$9,281 Vol.
Não
DeepSeek
$7,837 Vol.
Não
ByteDance
$7,190 Vol.
Não
MiniMax
$6,734 Vol.
Não
Meituan
$3,058 Vol.
Não
Tencent
$12,071 Vol.
Não
StepFun
$1,698 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weights large language model underpins the 99.8% market-implied odds, as it led multiple coding, agentic, and long-context benchmarks on arena.ai and Artificial Analysis while rivaling top U.S. systems and spurring developer downloads plus ARR growth past $300 million. This performance widened its edge over peers including Alibaba’s Qwen series, DeepSeek, and Z.ai on tracked capability metrics ahead of the August 31 resolution. A late-August model release or leaderboard update from another lab that overtakes Kimi K3 on the specific arena.ai Text Arena overall ranking remains the main scenario that could shift consensus.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado Aberto: Jul 20, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$153,326Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 20, 2026, 8:38 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weights large language model underpins the 99.8% market-implied odds, as it led multiple coding, agentic, and long-context benchmarks on arena.ai and Artificial Analysis while rivaling top U.S. systems and spurring developer downloads plus ARR growth past $300 million. This performance widened its edge over peers including Alibaba’s Qwen series, DeepSeek, and Z.ai on tracked capability metrics ahead of the August 31 resolution. A late-August model release or leaderboard update from another lab that overtakes Kimi K3 on the specific arena.ai Text Arena overall ranking remains the main scenario that could shift consensus.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$153,326Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 20, 2026, 8:38 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weights large language model underpins the 99.8% market-implied odds, as it led multiple coding, agentic, and long-context benchmarks on arena.ai and Artificial Analysis while rivaling top U.S. systems and spurring developer downloads plus ARR growth past $300 million. This performance widened its edge over peers including Alibaba’s Qwen series, DeepSeek, and Z.ai on tracked capability metrics ahead of the August 31 resolution. A late-August model release or leaderboard update from another lab that overtakes Kimi K3 on the specific arena.ai Text Arena overall ranking remains the main scenario that could shift consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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