Traders on Polymarket assign Anthropic a 55.5% implied probability of having the second-best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models dominating the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard's top two spots as of early April, showcasing superior Elo ratings in blind user battles across reasoning and coding benchmarks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro recent surge to third place—following its March launch with enhanced abstract reasoning scores—bolsters its 24% odds, while DeepSeek's V4 impresses in specialized math and coding evals at 8.4%. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and xAI's Grok 4.20 trail in top-10 rankings, fueling lower probabilities. Key catalysts include anticipated Claude 5 previews, Gemini updates at Google I/O, and fresh LMSYS data, amid crowded frontier competition where release timing could shift trader consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?
Qual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?
Anthropic 55%
Google 24%
DeepSeek 8.4%
OpenAI 8%
$334,716 Vol.
$334,716 Vol.

Anthropic
55%

24%

DeepSeek
8%

OpenAI
8%

xAI
6%

Z.ai
1%

Meituan
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 55%
Google 24%
DeepSeek 8.4%
OpenAI 8%
$334,716 Vol.
$334,716 Vol.

Anthropic
55%

24%

DeepSeek
8%

OpenAI
8%

xAI
6%

Z.ai
1%

Meituan
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Moonshot
<1%
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders on Polymarket assign Anthropic a 55.5% implied probability of having the second-best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models dominating the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard's top two spots as of early April, showcasing superior Elo ratings in blind user battles across reasoning and coding benchmarks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro recent surge to third place—following its March launch with enhanced abstract reasoning scores—bolsters its 24% odds, while DeepSeek's V4 impresses in specialized math and coding evals at 8.4%. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and xAI's Grok 4.20 trail in top-10 rankings, fueling lower probabilities. Key catalysts include anticipated Claude 5 previews, Gemini updates at Google I/O, and fresh LMSYS data, amid crowded frontier competition where release timing could shift trader consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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