Market icon
Tecnologia·Big Tech

Qual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?

Market icon
Tecnologia·Big Tech

Qual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?

abr 30

jun 30

abr 30

jun 30

Anthropic 55%

Google 24%

DeepSeek 8.4%

OpenAI 8%

Polymarket

$334,716 Vol.

Anthropic 55%

Google 24%

DeepSeek 8.4%

OpenAI 8%

Polymarket

$334,716 Vol.

Market icon

Anthropic

$5,172 Vol.

55%

Market icon

Google

$2,326 Vol.

24%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$245,032 Vol.

8%

Market icon

OpenAI

$31,188 Vol.

8%

Market icon

xAI

$11,200 Vol.

6%

Market icon

Z.ai

$4,900 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Meituan

$30,665 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Alibaba

$1,447 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mistral

$942 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Moonshot

$1,843 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders on Polymarket assign Anthropic a 55.5% implied probability of having the second-best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models dominating the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard's top two spots as of early April, showcasing superior Elo ratings in blind user battles across reasoning and coding benchmarks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro recent surge to third place—following its March launch with enhanced abstract reasoning scores—bolsters its 24% odds, while DeepSeek's V4 impresses in specialized math and coding evals at 8.4%. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and xAI's Grok 4.20 trail in top-10 rankings, fueling lower probabilities. Key catalysts include anticipated Claude 5 previews, Gemini updates at Google I/O, and fresh LMSYS data, amid crowded frontier competition where release timing could shift trader consensus.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$334,716
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders on Polymarket assign Anthropic a 55.5% implied probability of having the second-best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 models dominating the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard's top two spots as of early April, showcasing superior Elo ratings in blind user battles across reasoning and coding benchmarks. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro recent surge to third place—following its March launch with enhanced abstract reasoning scores—bolsters its 24% odds, while DeepSeek's V4 impresses in specialized math and coding evals at 8.4%. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and xAI's Grok 4.20 trail in top-10 rankings, fueling lower probabilities. Key catalysts include anticipated Claude 5 previews, Gemini updates at Google I/O, and fresh LMSYS data, amid crowded frontier competition where release timing could shift trader consensus.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$334,716
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Qual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 56%, followed by "Google" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Qual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?" has generated $334.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Qual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Qual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?" is "Anthropic" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Qual empresa tem o segundo melhor modelo de IA no final de junho?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.