Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant position atop the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control off), where it holds the highest Arena Score as of the March 31 snapshot. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 roadmap, including the February Claude Opus 4.6 release excelling in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA (91.9%) and MMLU-Pro (82%), plus March enhancements such as 1M-token context windows, agentic workflows via Claude Cowork, and surging enterprise adoption per their Economic Index report. While real capital backs this skin-in-the-game verdict, late-breaking competitor launches from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) or OpenAI (GPT-5.4), leaderboard volatility, or a tie could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de março?
Qual empresa tem o melhor modelo de IA no final de março?
Anthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
Baidu <1%
$16,222,838 Vol.
$16,222,838 Vol.

Não

OpenAI
Não

Baidu
Não

xAI
Não

Moonshot
Não

Meituan
Não

Anthropic
Sim

Alibaba
Não

Z.ai
Não

DeepSeek
Não

Mistral
Não
Anthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
Baidu <1%
$16,222,838 Vol.
$16,222,838 Vol.

Não

OpenAI
Não

Baidu
Não

xAI
Não

Moonshot
Não

Meituan
Não

Anthropic
Sim

Alibaba
Não

Z.ai
Não

DeepSeek
Não

Mistral
Não
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant position atop the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control off), where it holds the highest Arena Score as of the March 31 snapshot. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 roadmap, including the February Claude Opus 4.6 release excelling in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA (91.9%) and MMLU-Pro (82%), plus March enhancements such as 1M-token context windows, agentic workflows via Claude Cowork, and surging enterprise adoption per their Economic Index report. While real capital backs this skin-in-the-game verdict, late-breaking competitor launches from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) or OpenAI (GPT-5.4), leaderboard volatility, or a tie could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions