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Tecnologia·Big Tech

Pontuação do Google Gemini no FrontierMath Benchmark até 30 de junho?

Market icon
Tecnologia·Big Tech

Pontuação do Google Gemini no FrontierMath Benchmark até 30 de junho?

$64,506 Vol.

28 fev 2026
Polymarket

$64,506 Vol.

Polymarket

40%+

$0 Vol.

94%

45%+

$25,739 Vol.

69%

50%+

$15,555 Vol.

42%

60%+

$23,213 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, released February 2026, scores around 38% on FrontierMath Tiers 1–3—expert-vetted math problems spanning undergraduate to postdoc levels—trailing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro record of 50% from early March. This lag underscores competitive pressures in frontier AI reasoning, where models must tackle hours-long proofs and Tier 4 research challenges unsolved by most humans. Gemini excels in cost-efficient API pricing and multimodal tasks but needs reasoning breakthroughs to close the gap. Traders eye Google I/O (May 19–20) for Gemini 4.0 previews or "Deep Think" enhancements, with the June 30 deadline amplifying urgency amid rapid model cycles.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$64,506
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, released February 2026, scores around 38% on FrontierMath Tiers 1–3—expert-vetted math problems spanning undergraduate to postdoc levels—trailing OpenAI's GPT-5.4 Pro record of 50% from early March. This lag underscores competitive pressures in frontier AI reasoning, where models must tackle hours-long proofs and Tier 4 research challenges unsolved by most humans. Gemini excels in cost-efficient API pricing and multimodal tasks but needs reasoning breakthroughs to close the gap. Traders eye Google I/O (May 19–20) for Gemini 4.0 previews or "Deep Think" enhancements, with the June 30 deadline amplifying urgency amid rapid model cycles.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$64,506
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Pontuação do Google Gemini no FrontierMath Benchmark até 30 de junho?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "40%+" at 94%, followed by "45%+" at 69%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Pontuação do Google Gemini no FrontierMath Benchmark até 30 de junho?" has generated $64.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Pontuação do Google Gemini no FrontierMath Benchmark até 30 de junho?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Pontuação do Google Gemini no FrontierMath Benchmark até 30 de junho?" is "40%+" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "45%+" at 69%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Pontuação do Google Gemini no FrontierMath Benchmark até 30 de junho?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.