Market icon
Tecnologia·Google

Qual IA da empresa chegará primeiro a 1550 na Chatbot Arena em 2026?

Market icon
Tecnologia·Google

Qual IA da empresa chegará primeiro a 1550 na Chatbot Arena em 2026?

Anthropic 36%

Nenhum em 2026 35%

Google 12%

OpenAI 8%

Polymarket

$24,381 Vol.

Anthropic 36%

Nenhum em 2026 35%

Google 12%

OpenAI 8%

Polymarket

$24,381 Vol.

Market icon

Anthropic

$2,795 Vol.

36%

Market icon

Nenhum em 2026

$4,215 Vol.

40%

Market icon

Google

$3,973 Vol.

12%

Market icon

OpenAI

$3,840 Vol.

8%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$1,772 Vol.

3%

Market icon

xAI

$3,251 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Alibaba

$1,668 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Mistral

$1,631 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Z.ai

$1,236 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader sentiment on the race to 1550 Elo on LMArena's Chatbot Arena leaderboard reflects a tight contest between no breakthroughs in 2026 (40% implied probability) and Anthropic (36%), driven by recent March releases pushing top scores to just 1505—Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro leads narrowly at 1505, ahead of Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking at 1503, xAI's Grok-4.20 at 1496, and OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high at 1495. Anthropic edges trader favor due to consistent benchmark dominance in coding and reasoning, bolstered by advanced "thinking" modes and safety-aligned scaling; Google trails in odds despite the current lead, signaling doubts on iteration speed amid compute constraints and regulatory scrutiny. Diminishing returns from post-training optimizations heighten uncertainty, with upcoming model drops from major labs as key catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".

If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$24,381
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader sentiment on the race to 1550 Elo on LMArena's Chatbot Arena leaderboard reflects a tight contest between no breakthroughs in 2026 (40% implied probability) and Anthropic (36%), driven by recent March releases pushing top scores to just 1505—Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro leads narrowly at 1505, ahead of Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking at 1503, xAI's Grok-4.20 at 1496, and OpenAI's GPT-5.4-high at 1495. Anthropic edges trader favor due to consistent benchmark dominance in coding and reasoning, bolstered by advanced "thinking" modes and safety-aligned scaling; Google trails in odds despite the current lead, signaling doubts on iteration speed amid compute constraints and regulatory scrutiny. Diminishing returns from post-training optimizations heighten uncertainty, with upcoming model drops from major labs as key catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".

If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$24,381
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Qual IA da empresa chegará primeiro a 1550 na Chatbot Arena em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nenhum em 2026" at 40%, followed by "Anthropic" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Qual IA da empresa chegará primeiro a 1550 na Chatbot Arena em 2026?" has generated $24.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Qual IA da empresa chegará primeiro a 1550 na Chatbot Arena em 2026?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Qual IA da empresa chegará primeiro a 1550 na Chatbot Arena em 2026?" is "Nenhum em 2026" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Anthropic" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Qual IA da empresa chegará primeiro a 1550 na Chatbot Arena em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.