Trader consensus strongly favors no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30 (81.8% implied probability), driven by the absence of any official announcements, invitations, or scheduled summits amid Ukraine war tensions and post-inauguration diplomatic protocols. Trump's recent statements expressing eagerness for direct talks to resolve the conflict—echoed by Putin's openness—have fueled speculation but yielded no concrete venue or timeline, leaving locations like other EU countries (3.0%), the US (2.4%), or Gulf states (1.8%) with minimal odds. Logistical hurdles, including security arrangements and allied consultations, further dampen near-term expectations, with traders pricing in extended timelines beyond mid-2025.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoNenhum encontro até 30 de junho 81.8%
Outro país da UE 3.0%
Outro 2.5%
Estados Unidos 2.3%
$2,457,806 Vol.
$2,457,806 Vol.

Nenhum encontro até 30 de junho
82%

Outro país da UE
3%

Outro
2%

Estados Unidos
2%

País do Golfo
2%

China
2%

Rússia
2%

Turquia
1%

Bielorrússia
1%

Suíça
1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Finlândia
<1%

Japão
<1%

Ucrânia
<1%

Austrália
<1%
Nenhum encontro até 30 de junho 81.8%
Outro país da UE 3.0%
Outro 2.5%
Estados Unidos 2.3%
$2,457,806 Vol.
$2,457,806 Vol.

Nenhum encontro até 30 de junho
82%

Outro país da UE
3%

Outro
2%

Estados Unidos
2%

País do Golfo
2%

China
2%

Rússia
2%

Turquia
1%

Bielorrússia
1%

Suíça
1%

Coreia do Sul
<1%

Finlândia
<1%

Japão
<1%

Ucrânia
<1%

Austrália
<1%
This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 30, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus strongly favors no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30 (81.8% implied probability), driven by the absence of any official announcements, invitations, or scheduled summits amid Ukraine war tensions and post-inauguration diplomatic protocols. Trump's recent statements expressing eagerness for direct talks to resolve the conflict—echoed by Putin's openness—have fueled speculation but yielded no concrete venue or timeline, leaving locations like other EU countries (3.0%), the US (2.4%), or Gulf states (1.8%) with minimal odds. Logistical hurdles, including security arrangements and allied consultations, further dampen near-term expectations, with traders pricing in extended timelines beyond mid-2025.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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