Amid the US-Israel war on Iran that began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has retaliated through multiple ballistic missile waves targeting US bases, Israeli cities, and regional assets, including a confirmed strike on an oil tanker off Dubai on March 31 and claims of hits on American facilities as recently as March 30. These actions, amid over 3,000 Israeli strikes and US naval losses, have defined trader consensus on Polymarket, with probabilities reflecting verified attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure like UAE's Habshan Field or Qatar's Ras Laffan amid heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions. On April 1, US signals of a swift end to operations and Iran's conditional openness to de-escalation via intermediaries introduce resolution uncertainty, pending official confirmations of targets struck by the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoContra o que o Irão tomará uma ação militar até 31 de março?
Contra o que o Irão tomará uma ação militar até 31 de março?
$511,599 Vol.
Dimona (Centro de Pesquisa Nuclear Shimon Peres Negev)
Não
Refinaria de Ruwais
Sim
Burj Khalifa
Não
Campo de Ghawar
Não
Campo Safaniya
Não
instalação de processamento de petróleo de Abqaiq
Não
Refinaria Mina Al-Ahmadi
Sim
Refinaria de Al Zour
Não
Leviathan Field
No
Khurais Field
No
Ras Tanura
Não
East–West Pipeline
No
Campo/Complexo de Processamento de Habshan
Não
Ras Laffan Industrial City
No
$511,599 Vol.
Dimona (Centro de Pesquisa Nuclear Shimon Peres Negev)
$273,213 Vol.
Não
Refinaria de Ruwais
$0 Vol.
Sim
Burj Khalifa
$2,090 Vol.
Não
Campo de Ghawar
$36,045 Vol.
Não
Campo Safaniya
$44,864 Vol.
Não
instalação de processamento de petróleo de Abqaiq
$46,287 Vol.
Não
Refinaria Mina Al-Ahmadi
$0 Vol.
Sim
Refinaria de Al Zour
$80,327 Vol.
Não
Leviathan Field
$1,484 Vol.
No
Khurais Field
$5,035 Vol.
No
Ras Tanura
$5,504 Vol.
Não
East–West Pipeline
$2,036 Vol.
No
Campo/Complexo de Processamento de Habshan
$2,452 Vol.
Não
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$12,262 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the US-Israel war on Iran that began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has retaliated through multiple ballistic missile waves targeting US bases, Israeli cities, and regional assets, including a confirmed strike on an oil tanker off Dubai on March 31 and claims of hits on American facilities as recently as March 30. These actions, amid over 3,000 Israeli strikes and US naval losses, have defined trader consensus on Polymarket, with probabilities reflecting verified attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure like UAE's Habshan Field or Qatar's Ras Laffan amid heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions. On April 1, US signals of a swift end to operations and Iran's conditional openness to de-escalation via intermediaries introduce resolution uncertainty, pending official confirmations of targets struck by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$511,599Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the US-Israel war on Iran that began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has retaliated through multiple ballistic missile waves targeting US bases, Israeli cities, and regional assets, including a confirmed strike on an oil tanker off Dubai on March 31 and claims of hits on American facilities as recently as March 30. These actions, amid over 3,000 Israeli strikes and US naval losses, have defined trader consensus on Polymarket, with probabilities reflecting verified attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure like UAE's Habshan Field or Qatar's Ras Laffan amid heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions. On April 1, US signals of a swift end to operations and Iran's conditional openness to de-escalation via intermediaries introduce resolution uncertainty, pending official confirmations of targets struck by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$511,599Mercado Aberto
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Amid the US-Israel war on Iran that began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has retaliated through multiple ballistic missile waves targeting US bases, Israeli cities, and regional assets, including a confirmed strike on an oil tanker off Dubai on March 31 and claims of hits on American facilities as recently as March 30. These actions, amid over 3,000 Israeli strikes and US naval losses, have defined trader consensus on Polymarket, with probabilities reflecting verified attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure like UAE's Habshan Field or Qatar's Ras Laffan amid heightened Strait of Hormuz tensions. On April 1, US signals of a swift end to operations and Iran's conditional openness to de-escalation via intermediaries introduce resolution uncertainty, pending official confirmations of targets struck by the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions