In the ongoing 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, now over 30 days since initial airstrikes, Iran conducted missile barrages against Israeli sites near Beersheba—including military bases and the ADAMA chemical plant—on March 29, alongside drone and missile strikes damaging aluminum facilities in the UAE and Bahrain. Iranian leaders, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused the US of plotting ground invasions and vowed to "set American soldiers on fire" while threatening regional allies' energy infrastructure. With Russian satellite imagery aiding potential strikes on US bases like Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia, traders assess Iran's diminished launch capacity against escalation risks, including rejected US ceasefire proposals and CENTCOM discussions on further operations before April 30 resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoWhat will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?
$83,356 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Al Zour Refinery
38%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
37%
Ras Tanura
36%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
36%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
27%
Ruwais Refinery
27%
Ghawar Field
22%
East–West Pipeline
21%
Safaniya Field
20%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
20%
Khurais Field
20%
Leviathan Field
18%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
10%
Burj Khalifa
6%
$83,356 Vol.
Al Zour Refinery
$1,277 Vol.
38%
Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery
$7,235 Vol.
37%
Ras Tanura
$9,196 Vol.
36%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$11,528 Vol.
36%
Habshan Field/Processing Complex
$10,184 Vol.
27%
Ruwais Refinery
$9,432 Vol.
27%
Ghawar Field
$882 Vol.
22%
East–West Pipeline
$5,180 Vol.
21%
Safaniya Field
$2,585 Vol.
20%
Abqaiq oil processing facility
$5,343 Vol.
20%
Khurais Field
$4,362 Vol.
20%
Leviathan Field
$1,601 Vol.
18%
Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)
$14,231 Vol.
10%
Burj Khalifa
$380 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.In the ongoing 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, now over 30 days since initial airstrikes, Iran conducted missile barrages against Israeli sites near Beersheba—including military bases and the ADAMA chemical plant—on March 29, alongside drone and missile strikes damaging aluminum facilities in the UAE and Bahrain. Iranian leaders, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused the US of plotting ground invasions and vowed to "set American soldiers on fire" while threatening regional allies' energy infrastructure. With Russian satellite imagery aiding potential strikes on US bases like Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia, traders assess Iran's diminished launch capacity against escalation risks, including rejected US ceasefire proposals and CENTCOM discussions on further operations before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$83,356Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.In the ongoing 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, now over 30 days since initial airstrikes, Iran conducted missile barrages against Israeli sites near Beersheba—including military bases and the ADAMA chemical plant—on March 29, alongside drone and missile strikes damaging aluminum facilities in the UAE and Bahrain. Iranian leaders, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused the US of plotting ground invasions and vowed to "set American soldiers on fire" while threatening regional allies' energy infrastructure. With Russian satellite imagery aiding potential strikes on US bases like Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia, traders assess Iran's diminished launch capacity against escalation risks, including rejected US ceasefire proposals and CENTCOM discussions on further operations before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volume
$83,356Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In the ongoing 2026 US-Israel-Iran war, now over 30 days since initial airstrikes, Iran conducted missile barrages against Israeli sites near Beersheba—including military bases and the ADAMA chemical plant—on March 29, alongside drone and missile strikes damaging aluminum facilities in the UAE and Bahrain. Iranian leaders, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused the US of plotting ground invasions and vowed to "set American soldiers on fire" while threatening regional allies' energy infrastructure. With Russian satellite imagery aiding potential strikes on US bases like Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia, traders assess Iran's diminished launch capacity against escalation risks, including rejected US ceasefire proposals and CENTCOM discussions on further operations before April 30 resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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