Amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran launched February 28, Yemen's Houthis—long allied with Tehran—have issued stark warnings of direct intervention, declaring "fingers on the trigger" for potential Red Sea strikes on U.S. warships and shipping if escalation demands, as stated by Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi within the past 48 hours. Claims of recent Houthi drone and missile barrages targeting U.S. vessels in the Bab al-Mandeb strait have intensified tensions, echoing prior disruptions that prompted U.S.-led airstrikes degrading much of their missile arsenal. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities for new U.S./Israel strikes by March 31, prioritizing Iran focus absent confirmed Houthi attacks on Israel or chokepoint blockades, though Red Sea threats could trigger rapid retaliation to safeguard 12% of global trade.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$252,444 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
31 de março
66%
$252,444 Vol.
31 de março
$252,444 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran launched February 28, Yemen's Houthis—long allied with Tehran—have issued stark warnings of direct intervention, declaring "fingers on the trigger" for potential Red Sea strikes on U.S. warships and shipping if escalation demands, as stated by Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi within the past 48 hours. Claims of recent Houthi drone and missile barrages targeting U.S. vessels in the Bab al-Mandeb strait have intensified tensions, echoing prior disruptions that prompted U.S.-led airstrikes degrading much of their missile arsenal. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities for new U.S./Israel strikes by March 31, prioritizing Iran focus absent confirmed Houthi attacks on Israel or chokepoint blockades, though Red Sea threats could trigger rapid retaliation to safeguard 12% of global trade.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 28, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Volume
$252,444Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran launched February 28, Yemen's Houthis—long allied with Tehran—have issued stark warnings of direct intervention, declaring "fingers on the trigger" for potential Red Sea strikes on U.S. warships and shipping if escalation demands, as stated by Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi within the past 48 hours. Claims of recent Houthi drone and missile barrages targeting U.S. vessels in the Bab al-Mandeb strait have intensified tensions, echoing prior disruptions that prompted U.S.-led airstrikes degrading much of their missile arsenal. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities for new U.S./Israel strikes by March 31, prioritizing Iran focus absent confirmed Houthi attacks on Israel or chokepoint blockades, though Red Sea threats could trigger rapid retaliation to safeguard 12% of global trade.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$252,444Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 28, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran launched February 28, Yemen's Houthis—long allied with Tehran—have issued stark warnings of direct intervention, declaring "fingers on the trigger" for potential Red Sea strikes on U.S. warships and shipping if escalation demands, as stated by Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi within the past 48 hours. Claims of recent Houthi drone and missile barrages targeting U.S. vessels in the Bab al-Mandeb strait have intensified tensions, echoing prior disruptions that prompted U.S.-led airstrikes degrading much of their missile arsenal. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities for new U.S./Israel strikes by March 31, prioritizing Iran focus absent confirmed Houthi attacks on Israel or chokepoint blockades, though Red Sea threats could trigger rapid retaliation to safeguard 12% of global trade.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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