Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63.5% chance of no US-Cuba military clash in 2026, driven by Washington's focus on economic pressure rather than direct military action amid heightened rhetoric. President Trump's recent "Cuba is next" threats at a March 27 investment forum, following a US oil blockade via Venezuela that triggered nationwide blackouts and fuel shortages since January, prompted Cuban officials on March 22 to announce military preparations for potential aggression. However, a senior US general stated on March 19 that the military is not rehearsing an invasion, while closed-door diplomatic talks continue and FBI agents arrived in Havana on April 1 to investigate a speedboat incident, signaling de-escalation channels. Cuba's release of an economic plan without reforms underscores internal strain, but traders see the maximum pressure campaign forcing concessions short of escalation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$62,884 Vol.
$62,884 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$62,884 Vol.
$62,884 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63.5% chance of no US-Cuba military clash in 2026, driven by Washington's focus on economic pressure rather than direct military action amid heightened rhetoric. President Trump's recent "Cuba is next" threats at a March 27 investment forum, following a US oil blockade via Venezuela that triggered nationwide blackouts and fuel shortages since January, prompted Cuban officials on March 22 to announce military preparations for potential aggression. However, a senior US general stated on March 19 that the military is not rehearsing an invasion, while closed-door diplomatic talks continue and FBI agents arrived in Havana on April 1 to investigate a speedboat incident, signaling de-escalation channels. Cuba's release of an economic plan without reforms underscores internal strain, but traders see the maximum pressure campaign forcing concessions short of escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$62,884Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63.5% chance of no US-Cuba military clash in 2026, driven by Washington's focus on economic pressure rather than direct military action amid heightened rhetoric. President Trump's recent "Cuba is next" threats at a March 27 investment forum, following a US oil blockade via Venezuela that triggered nationwide blackouts and fuel shortages since January, prompted Cuban officials on March 22 to announce military preparations for potential aggression. However, a senior US general stated on March 19 that the military is not rehearsing an invasion, while closed-door diplomatic talks continue and FBI agents arrived in Havana on April 1 to investigate a speedboat incident, signaling de-escalation channels. Cuba's release of an economic plan without reforms underscores internal strain, but traders see the maximum pressure campaign forcing concessions short of escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$62,884Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 63.5% chance of no US-Cuba military clash in 2026, driven by Washington's focus on economic pressure rather than direct military action amid heightened rhetoric. President Trump's recent "Cuba is next" threats at a March 27 investment forum, following a US oil blockade via Venezuela that triggered nationwide blackouts and fuel shortages since January, prompted Cuban officials on March 22 to announce military preparations for potential aggression. However, a senior US general stated on March 19 that the military is not rehearsing an invasion, while closed-door diplomatic talks continue and FBI agents arrived in Havana on April 1 to investigate a speedboat incident, signaling de-escalation channels. Cuba's release of an economic plan without reforms underscores internal strain, but traders see the maximum pressure campaign forcing concessions short of escalation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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