Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no US military strike on Colombia, reflecting the absence of any verified planning or escalation despite diplomatic frictions between Presidents Trump and Petro. Recent tensions, peaking in February over deportation flights, Venezuela policy, and counternarcotics disagreements, have eased without military repercussions; Colombia remains a key US ally with deep security cooperation. In late March, a Pentagon official described US-backed Ecuadorian airstrikes on narco targets near the Colombia border—under Operation Total Extermination—as the onset of a wider Latin American anti-cartel campaign, spurring speculation but not direct US action on Colombian soil. Upcoming Colombian elections in 2026 and potential Trump-Petro summits could influence dynamics, though structural alliance barriers make strikes improbable absent major provocations like attacks on US personnel.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$1,498,296 Vol.
31 jan 2026
31 de março
<1%
31 de dezembro
20%
$1,498,296 Vol.
31 de março
$408,868 Vol.
<1%
31 de dezembro
$421,089 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no US military strike on Colombia, reflecting the absence of any verified planning or escalation despite diplomatic frictions between Presidents Trump and Petro. Recent tensions, peaking in February over deportation flights, Venezuela policy, and counternarcotics disagreements, have eased without military repercussions; Colombia remains a key US ally with deep security cooperation. In late March, a Pentagon official described US-backed Ecuadorian airstrikes on narco targets near the Colombia border—under Operation Total Extermination—as the onset of a wider Latin American anti-cartel campaign, spurring speculation but not direct US action on Colombian soil. Upcoming Colombian elections in 2026 and potential Trump-Petro summits could influence dynamics, though structural alliance barriers make strikes improbable absent major provocations like attacks on US personnel.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Volume
$1,498,296Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no US military strike on Colombia, reflecting the absence of any verified planning or escalation despite diplomatic frictions between Presidents Trump and Petro. Recent tensions, peaking in February over deportation flights, Venezuela policy, and counternarcotics disagreements, have eased without military repercussions; Colombia remains a key US ally with deep security cooperation. In late March, a Pentagon official described US-backed Ecuadorian airstrikes on narco targets near the Colombia border—under Operation Total Extermination—as the onset of a wider Latin American anti-cartel campaign, spurring speculation but not direct US action on Colombian soil. Upcoming Colombian elections in 2026 and potential Trump-Petro summits could influence dynamics, though structural alliance barriers make strikes improbable absent major provocations like attacks on US personnel.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,498,296Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no US military strike on Colombia, reflecting the absence of any verified planning or escalation despite diplomatic frictions between Presidents Trump and Petro. Recent tensions, peaking in February over deportation flights, Venezuela policy, and counternarcotics disagreements, have eased without military repercussions; Colombia remains a key US ally with deep security cooperation. In late March, a Pentagon official described US-backed Ecuadorian airstrikes on narco targets near the Colombia border—under Operation Total Extermination—as the onset of a wider Latin American anti-cartel campaign, spurring speculation but not direct US action on Colombian soil. Upcoming Colombian elections in 2026 and potential Trump-Petro summits could influence dynamics, though structural alliance barriers make strikes improbable absent major provocations like attacks on US personnel.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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