US special forces entered Venezuela on January 3, 2026, launching airstrikes on Caracas and capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, who now face trial in New York; this surgical intervention, part of Operation Absolute Resolve amid drug trafficking and oil disputes, marked the first such US military action since 2019 aid deliveries. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities for repeat entries, driven by Defense Secretary statements ruling out additional troop deployments and the Trump administration's emphasis on a managed political transition under acting leader Delcy Rodríguez, whose recent sanctions removal signals de-escalation. Upcoming milestones include potential interim elections and regional diplomacy with Colombia, which could further diminish military re-engagement risks absent new provocations like cartel escalations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$1,257,502 Vol.
31 jan 2026
31 de março
1%
30 de junho
13%
$1,257,502 Vol.
31 de março
$3,502 Vol.
1%
30 de junho
$173,910 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special forces entered Venezuela on January 3, 2026, launching airstrikes on Caracas and capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, who now face trial in New York; this surgical intervention, part of Operation Absolute Resolve amid drug trafficking and oil disputes, marked the first such US military action since 2019 aid deliveries. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities for repeat entries, driven by Defense Secretary statements ruling out additional troop deployments and the Trump administration's emphasis on a managed political transition under acting leader Delcy Rodríguez, whose recent sanctions removal signals de-escalation. Upcoming milestones include potential interim elections and regional diplomacy with Colombia, which could further diminish military re-engagement risks absent new provocations like cartel escalations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 3, 2026, 9:22 AM ET
Volume
$1,257,502Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 3, 2026, 9:22 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special forces entered Venezuela on January 3, 2026, launching airstrikes on Caracas and capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, who now face trial in New York; this surgical intervention, part of Operation Absolute Resolve amid drug trafficking and oil disputes, marked the first such US military action since 2019 aid deliveries. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities for repeat entries, driven by Defense Secretary statements ruling out additional troop deployments and the Trump administration's emphasis on a managed political transition under acting leader Delcy Rodríguez, whose recent sanctions removal signals de-escalation. Upcoming milestones include potential interim elections and regional diplomacy with Colombia, which could further diminish military re-engagement risks absent new provocations like cartel escalations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,257,502Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 3, 2026, 9:22 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
US special forces entered Venezuela on January 3, 2026, launching airstrikes on Caracas and capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, who now face trial in New York; this surgical intervention, part of Operation Absolute Resolve amid drug trafficking and oil disputes, marked the first such US military action since 2019 aid deliveries. Trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities for repeat entries, driven by Defense Secretary statements ruling out additional troop deployments and the Trump administration's emphasis on a managed political transition under acting leader Delcy Rodríguez, whose recent sanctions removal signals de-escalation. Upcoming milestones include potential interim elections and regional diplomacy with Colombia, which could further diminish military re-engagement risks absent new provocations like cartel escalations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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