Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding lead in the PA-11 House race because the district carries a Republican Partisan Voter Index of R+11, covering Lancaster and southern York counties where GOP candidates have consistently won by double digits. As the incumbent since 2017, Smucker secured an uncontested Republican primary in May 2026 and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $1 million raised and hundreds of thousands in cash on hand compared to Democrat Nancy Mannion’s roughly $200,000. Independent forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 97% reflects these structural advantages. A major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave could narrow the gap, though the district’s baseline and Smucker’s resources make an upset improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPA-11 House Election Winner
PA-11 House Election Winner
$25,794 Vol.
$25,794 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Lloyd Smucker (R)
97%
Nancy Mannion (D)
2%
$25,794 Vol.
$25,794 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Lloyd Smucker (R)
$15,668 Vol.
97%
Nancy Mannion (D)
$10,126 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding lead in the PA-11 House race because the district carries a Republican Partisan Voter Index of R+11, covering Lancaster and southern York counties where GOP candidates have consistently won by double digits. As the incumbent since 2017, Smucker secured an uncontested Republican primary in May 2026 and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $1 million raised and hundreds of thousands in cash on hand compared to Democrat Nancy Mannion’s roughly $200,000. Independent forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 97% reflects these structural advantages. A major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave could narrow the gap, though the district’s baseline and Smucker’s resources make an upset improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$25,794Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding lead in the PA-11 House race because the district carries a Republican Partisan Voter Index of R+11, covering Lancaster and southern York counties where GOP candidates have consistently won by double digits. As the incumbent since 2017, Smucker secured an uncontested Republican primary in May 2026 and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $1 million raised and hundreds of thousands in cash on hand compared to Democrat Nancy Mannion’s roughly $200,000. Independent forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 97% reflects these structural advantages. A major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave could narrow the gap, though the district’s baseline and Smucker’s resources make an upset improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,794Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lloyd Smucker holds a commanding lead in the PA-11 House race because the district carries a Republican Partisan Voter Index of R+11, covering Lancaster and southern York counties where GOP candidates have consistently won by double digits. As the incumbent since 2017, Smucker secured an uncontested Republican primary in May 2026 and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $1 million raised and hundreds of thousands in cash on hand compared to Democrat Nancy Mannion’s roughly $200,000. Independent forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 97% reflects these structural advantages. A major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic wave could narrow the gap, though the district’s baseline and Smucker’s resources make an upset improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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