Peggy Flanagan's decisive win in the August 11, 2026, Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary for the open U.S. Senate seat produced a roughly 19-20 point margin over Rep. Angie Craig, driving near-certain trader consensus on the 15–20% outcome range. Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith endorsed Flanagan, as did the state party, bolstering the lieutenant governor's progressive campaign focused on corporate influence and immigration enforcement amid federal policy shifts. Craig, positioned as the more moderate alternative with strong fundraising, could not overcome this institutional and voter alignment in a contest that reflected broader intraparty dynamics. Final certified results would need to shift substantially through recount or tabulation error to move the margin outside the current leading bin, an outcome traders view as highly improbable given the reported vote totals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoFlanagan 15–20% 97.9%
Flanagan 20%+ 3.9%
Flanagan <5% 3.1%
Craig <5% 3.1%
$47,742 Vol.
$47,742 Vol.
11 ago 2026
Flanagan 20%+
4%
Flanagan 15–20%
98%
Flanagan 10–15%
<1%
Flanagan 5–10%
2%
Flanagan <5%
3%
Craig <5%
3%
Craig 5–10%
2%
Craig 10–15%
<1%
Craig 15–20%
<1%
Craig 20%+
1%
Flanagan 15–20% 97.9%
Flanagan 20%+ 3.9%
Flanagan <5% 3.1%
Craig <5% 3.1%
$47,742 Vol.
$47,742 Vol.
11 ago 2026
Flanagan 20%+
$1,541 Vol.
4%
Flanagan 15–20%
$17,353 Vol.
98%
Flanagan 10–15%
$9,838 Vol.
<1%
Flanagan 5–10%
$4,635 Vol.
2%
Flanagan <5%
$9,194 Vol.
3%
Craig <5%
$1,394 Vol.
3%
Craig 5–10%
$2,152 Vol.
2%
Craig 10–15%
$663 Vol.
<1%
Craig 15–20%
$489 Vol.
<1%
Craig 20%+
$483 Vol.
1%
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Peggy Flanagan's decisive win in the August 11, 2026, Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary for the open U.S. Senate seat produced a roughly 19-20 point margin over Rep. Angie Craig, driving near-certain trader consensus on the 15–20% outcome range. Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith endorsed Flanagan, as did the state party, bolstering the lieutenant governor's progressive campaign focused on corporate influence and immigration enforcement amid federal policy shifts. Craig, positioned as the more moderate alternative with strong fundraising, could not overcome this institutional and voter alignment in a contest that reflected broader intraparty dynamics. Final certified results would need to shift substantially through recount or tabulation error to move the margin outside the current leading bin, an outcome traders view as highly improbable given the reported vote totals.
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 15, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$47,742Data de Término
11 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 15, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Peggy Flanagan's decisive win in the August 11, 2026, Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary for the open U.S. Senate seat produced a roughly 19-20 point margin over Rep. Angie Craig, driving near-certain trader consensus on the 15–20% outcome range. Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith endorsed Flanagan, as did the state party, bolstering the lieutenant governor's progressive campaign focused on corporate influence and immigration enforcement amid federal policy shifts. Craig, positioned as the more moderate alternative with strong fundraising, could not overcome this institutional and voter alignment in a contest that reflected broader intraparty dynamics. Final certified results would need to shift substantially through recount or tabulation error to move the margin outside the current leading bin, an outcome traders view as highly improbable given the reported vote totals.
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$47,742Data de Término
11 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 15, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Peggy Flanagan's decisive win in the August 11, 2026, Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary for the open U.S. Senate seat produced a roughly 19-20 point margin over Rep. Angie Craig, driving near-certain trader consensus on the 15–20% outcome range. Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith endorsed Flanagan, as did the state party, bolstering the lieutenant governor's progressive campaign focused on corporate influence and immigration enforcement amid federal policy shifts. Craig, positioned as the more moderate alternative with strong fundraising, could not overcome this institutional and voter alignment in a contest that reflected broader intraparty dynamics. Final certified results would need to shift substantially through recount or tabulation error to move the margin outside the current leading bin, an outcome traders view as highly improbable given the reported vote totals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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