Trader consensus has locked in <2.6 million TSA checkpoint passengers for March 28 at a near-certain 100% implied probability following the official TSA release of 2,426,467 travelers screened that day—well below the threshold amid a nationwide staffing crisis. Prolonged government shutdown impacts, with over 450 TSA officers quitting and callout rates hitting 40-50% at major airports, have suppressed volumes across late March, as evidenced by sub-2.8 million daily figures from March 24-29 despite spring break demand. Realistic upsets are improbable barring a rare data revision by TSA, which has never occurred post-publication; traders see no path to higher bins given the finalized count.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado<2.6M 100.0%
2.6M-2.8M <1%
2.8M-3.0M <1%
3.0M-3.2M <1%
$9,943 Vol.
$9,943 Vol.
<2.6M
Yes
2.6M-2.8M
No
2.8M-3.0M
No
3.0M-3.2M
No
3.2M-3.4M
No
>3.4M
No
<2.6M 100.0%
2.6M-2.8M <1%
2.8M-3.0M <1%
3.0M-3.2M <1%
$9,943 Vol.
$9,943 Vol.
<2.6M
Yes
2.6M-2.8M
No
2.8M-3.0M
No
3.0M-3.2M
No
3.2M-3.4M
No
>3.4M
No
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus has locked in <2.6 million TSA checkpoint passengers for March 28 at a near-certain 100% implied probability following the official TSA release of 2,426,467 travelers screened that day—well below the threshold amid a nationwide staffing crisis. Prolonged government shutdown impacts, with over 450 TSA officers quitting and callout rates hitting 40-50% at major airports, have suppressed volumes across late March, as evidenced by sub-2.8 million daily figures from March 24-29 despite spring break demand. Realistic upsets are improbable barring a rare data revision by TSA, which has never occurred post-publication; traders see no path to higher bins given the finalized count.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions