Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.3% for a North Korean missile test or launch by April 30, driven by Pyongyang's accelerated testing pace in 2026, including an unidentified ballistic missile fired eastward into the East Sea on April 18—confirmed by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff—plus anti-ship and cruise missile launches from the Choe Hyon destroyer on April 13-15, and multiple short-range ballistic salvos on April 8-9 under Kim Jong-un's direct oversight. This follows earlier 2026 firings in January and March, amid heightened Korean Peninsula tensions from U.S.-South Korea drills and Pyongyang's rhetoric designating Seoul its "principal enemy." With tests occurring frequently—often monthly—traders anticipate no pause in the next 12 days; rare disruptions like a surprise diplomatic breakthrough or internal technical setbacks could theoretically avert it, though momentum suggests otherwise.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNorth Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?
NOVO
NOVO
30 abr 2026
NOVO
NOVO
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.3% for a North Korean missile test or launch by April 30, driven by Pyongyang's accelerated testing pace in 2026, including an unidentified ballistic missile fired eastward into the East Sea on April 18—confirmed by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff—plus anti-ship and cruise missile launches from the Choe Hyon destroyer on April 13-15, and multiple short-range ballistic salvos on April 8-9 under Kim Jong-un's direct oversight. This follows earlier 2026 firings in January and March, amid heightened Korean Peninsula tensions from U.S.-South Korea drills and Pyongyang's rhetoric designating Seoul its "principal enemy." With tests occurring frequently—often monthly—traders anticipate no pause in the next 12 days; rare disruptions like a surprise diplomatic breakthrough or internal technical setbacks could theoretically avert it, though momentum suggests otherwise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 14, 2026, 5:06 PM ET
Volume
$4,326Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.3% for a North Korean missile test or launch by April 30, driven by Pyongyang's accelerated testing pace in 2026, including an unidentified ballistic missile fired eastward into the East Sea on April 18—confirmed by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff—plus anti-ship and cruise missile launches from the Choe Hyon destroyer on April 13-15, and multiple short-range ballistic salvos on April 8-9 under Kim Jong-un's direct oversight. This follows earlier 2026 firings in January and March, amid heightened Korean Peninsula tensions from U.S.-South Korea drills and Pyongyang's rhetoric designating Seoul its "principal enemy." With tests occurring frequently—often monthly—traders anticipate no pause in the next 12 days; rare disruptions like a surprise diplomatic breakthrough or internal technical setbacks could theoretically avert it, though momentum suggests otherwise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$4,326Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty at 98.3% for a North Korean missile test or launch by April 30, driven by Pyongyang's accelerated testing pace in 2026, including an unidentified ballistic missile fired eastward into the East Sea on April 18—confirmed by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff—plus anti-ship and cruise missile launches from the Choe Hyon destroyer on April 13-15, and multiple short-range ballistic salvos on April 8-9 under Kim Jong-un's direct oversight. This follows earlier 2026 firings in January and March, amid heightened Korean Peninsula tensions from U.S.-South Korea drills and Pyongyang's rhetoric designating Seoul its "principal enemy." With tests occurring frequently—often monthly—traders anticipate no pause in the next 12 days; rare disruptions like a surprise diplomatic breakthrough or internal technical setbacks could theoretically avert it, though momentum suggests otherwise.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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