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Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?

Market icon

Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?

dez 31

dez 31

Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria 63%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 11%

Petro - Presidente da Colômbia 4.1%

Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido 3.2%

Polymarket

$3,520,988 Vol.

Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria 63%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba 11%

Petro - Presidente da Colômbia 4.1%

Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido 3.2%

Polymarket

$3,520,988 Vol.

Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria

$32,992 Vol.

63%

Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba

$23,045 Vol.

11%

Petro - Presidente da Colômbia

$18,218 Vol.

4%

Starmer - Primeiro-Ministro do Reino Unido

$563,272 Vol.

3%

Netanyahu - Primeiro-ministro de Israel

$1,015,701 Vol.

3%

Takaichi - Primeira-ministra do Japão

$356,446 Vol.

2%

Trump - Presidente dos EUA

$217,325 Vol.

2%

Putin - Presidente da Rússia

$359,078 Vol.

2%

Nenhum antes de 2027

$21,675 Vol.

2%

Sheinbaum - Presidente do México

$70,933 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Presidente da Ucrânia

$19,688 Vol.

1%

Macron - Presidente da França

$74,797 Vol.

1%

Abbas - Presidente da Palestina

$88,736 Vol.

1%

Xi - Secretário-Geral do PCC

$45,946 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Primeiro-Ministro da Espanha

$23,331 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - Primeiro-ministro da França

$71,617 Vol.

1%

Lula da Silva - Presidente do Brasil

$74,531 Vol.

1%

al-Sharaa - Presidente da Síria

$45,999 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Presidente interina da Venezuela

$28,607 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Presidente da Argentina

$42,765 Vol.

<1%

Merz - Chanceler alemão

$33,513 Vol.

<1%

Erdoğan - Presidente da Turquia

$80,693 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Primeiro-Ministro da Austrália

$63,898 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - Governador da Califórnia

$120,423 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Líder Supremo da Coreia do Norte

$27,758 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power before 2027 at 62.5%, driven by opposition Tisza party leader Péter Magyar's surge in polls ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, fueled by widespread anti-corruption protests, economic discontent, and Orbán's pro-Russia stance amid EU tensions. Recent polls show Tisza leading 48-53% among decided voters versus Fidesz's 33-39%, though the gerrymandered single-member district system favors incumbents. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 11% following U.S. demands in March for his resignation amid a deepening crisis with oil sanctions and talks of Castro family succession. Colombia's Gustavo Petro at 4.2% reflects ongoing cabinet turmoil and court blocks on decrees, while U.K. PM Keir Starmer (3.2%) and Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu (3%) face lingering scandals and coalition strains ahead of their 2026 elections.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,520,988
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán exiting power before 2027 at 62.5%, driven by opposition Tisza party leader Péter Magyar's surge in polls ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, fueled by widespread anti-corruption protests, economic discontent, and Orbán's pro-Russia stance amid EU tensions. Recent polls show Tisza leading 48-53% among decided voters versus Fidesz's 33-39%, though the gerrymandered single-member district system favors incumbents. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 11% following U.S. demands in March for his resignation amid a deepening crisis with oil sanctions and talks of Castro family succession. Colombia's Gustavo Petro at 4.2% reflects ongoing cabinet turmoil and court blocks on decrees, while U.K. PM Keir Starmer (3.2%) and Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu (3%) face lingering scandals and coalition strains ahead of their 2026 elections.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,520,988
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria" at 63%, followed by "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" has generated $3.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" is "Orbán - Primeiro-ministro da Hungria" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Díaz-Canel - Presidente de Cuba" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Próximo líder fora do poder antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.