US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury persist into day 35 as of April 3, 2026, following the February 28 launch that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and missile sites. Intensified attacks over the past 48 hours have expanded beyond military depots to steel plants and a Tehran medical research center, prompting Iranian missile barrages and a reported US fighter jet downing. Tehran dismissed recent US ceasefire proposals while issuing counteroffers, as President Trump endorses negotiations amid regime decapitation claims. Key risks include Strait of Hormuz disruptions ahead of a UN Security Council vote on access, with backchannel diplomacy or further escalation likely to sway de-escalation timelines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$69,195 Vol.
30 abr 2026
April 3
<1%
April 4
1%
April 5
1%
April 6
2%
April 7
4%
April 8
13%
April 9
20%
April 10
14%
April 11
41%
April 12
28%
April 13
30%
April 14
16%
April 15
11%
April 16
37%
April 17
30%
April 18
44%
April 19
44%
April 20
25%
April 21
44%
April 22
44%
April 23
44%
April 24
45%
April 25
30%
April 26
44%
April 27
45%
April 28
44%
April 29
44%
April 30
37%
$69,195 Vol.
April 3
$6,488 Vol.
<1%
April 4
$1,940 Vol.
1%
April 5
$1,875 Vol.
1%
April 6
$4,826 Vol.
2%
April 7
$90 Vol.
4%
April 8
$35 Vol.
13%
April 9
$2,790 Vol.
20%
April 10
$0 Vol.
14%
April 11
$10 Vol.
41%
April 12
$0 Vol.
28%
April 13
$0 Vol.
30%
April 14
$4,614 Vol.
16%
April 15
$159 Vol.
11%
April 16
$0 Vol.
37%
April 17
$0 Vol.
30%
April 18
$0 Vol.
44%
April 19
$0 Vol.
44%
April 20
$0 Vol.
25%
April 21
$0 Vol.
44%
April 22
$0 Vol.
44%
April 23
$0 Vol.
44%
April 24
$0 Vol.
45%
April 25
$2,777 Vol.
30%
April 26
$0 Vol.
44%
April 27
$38 Vol.
45%
April 28
$0 Vol.
44%
April 29
$0 Vol.
44%
April 30
$21,898 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury persist into day 35 as of April 3, 2026, following the February 28 launch that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and missile sites. Intensified attacks over the past 48 hours have expanded beyond military depots to steel plants and a Tehran medical research center, prompting Iranian missile barrages and a reported US fighter jet downing. Tehran dismissed recent US ceasefire proposals while issuing counteroffers, as President Trump endorses negotiations amid regime decapitation claims. Key risks include Strait of Hormuz disruptions ahead of a UN Security Council vote on access, with backchannel diplomacy or further escalation likely to sway de-escalation timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$69,195Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury persist into day 35 as of April 3, 2026, following the February 28 launch that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and missile sites. Intensified attacks over the past 48 hours have expanded beyond military depots to steel plants and a Tehran medical research center, prompting Iranian missile barrages and a reported US fighter jet downing. Tehran dismissed recent US ceasefire proposals while issuing counteroffers, as President Trump endorses negotiations amid regime decapitation claims. Key risks include Strait of Hormuz disruptions ahead of a UN Security Council vote on access, with backchannel diplomacy or further escalation likely to sway de-escalation timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$69,195Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran under Operation Epic Fury persist into day 35 as of April 3, 2026, following the February 28 launch that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted nuclear and missile sites. Intensified attacks over the past 48 hours have expanded beyond military depots to steel plants and a Tehran medical research center, prompting Iranian missile barrages and a reported US fighter jet downing. Tehran dismissed recent US ceasefire proposals while issuing counteroffers, as President Trump endorses negotiations amid regime decapitation claims. Key risks include Strait of Hormuz disruptions ahead of a UN Security Council vote on access, with backchannel diplomacy or further escalation likely to sway de-escalation timelines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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