US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran persist into the fifth week of open conflict since late February 2026 surprise attacks that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with trader consensus reflecting sustained escalation rather than de-escalation signals. Recent developments include a US strike on April 2 destroying Iran's B1 bridge—killing civilians and prompting Tehran vows of retaliation—alongside hits on nuclear sites in Isfahan, the Pasteur Institute, and military infrastructure, while Iran launched missile salvos at Israel and targeted US assets. President Trump's speeches outline objectives to degrade Iran's missiles, navy, and proxy support but warn of expanded infrastructure attacks absent a deal, amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and surging oil prices; backchannel negotiations via Pakistan offer a potential off-ramp, though no ceasefire is confirmed.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$63,059 Vol.
30 abr 2026
April 3
1%
April 4
1%
April 5
2%
April 6
5%
April 7
10%
April 8
16%
April 9
19%
April 10
13%
April 11
41%
April 12
27%
April 13
22%
April 14
17%
April 15
12%
April 16
37%
April 17
30%
April 18
44%
April 19
44%
April 20
44%
April 21
44%
April 22
44%
April 23
44%
April 24
44%
April 25
31%
April 26
44%
April 27
44%
April 28
44%
April 29
44%
April 30
38%
$63,059 Vol.
April 3
$6,268 Vol.
1%
April 4
$1,902 Vol.
1%
April 5
$1,195 Vol.
2%
April 6
$33 Vol.
5%
April 7
$50 Vol.
10%
April 8
$1 Vol.
16%
April 9
$2,790 Vol.
19%
April 10
$0 Vol.
13%
April 11
$10 Vol.
41%
April 12
$0 Vol.
27%
April 13
$0 Vol.
22%
April 14
$4,614 Vol.
17%
April 15
$159 Vol.
12%
April 16
$0 Vol.
37%
April 17
$0 Vol.
30%
April 18
$0 Vol.
44%
April 19
$0 Vol.
44%
April 20
$0 Vol.
44%
April 21
$0 Vol.
44%
April 22
$0 Vol.
44%
April 23
$0 Vol.
44%
April 24
$0 Vol.
44%
April 25
$2,777 Vol.
31%
April 26
$0 Vol.
44%
April 27
$38 Vol.
44%
April 28
$0 Vol.
44%
April 29
$0 Vol.
44%
April 30
$21,567 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran persist into the fifth week of open conflict since late February 2026 surprise attacks that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with trader consensus reflecting sustained escalation rather than de-escalation signals. Recent developments include a US strike on April 2 destroying Iran's B1 bridge—killing civilians and prompting Tehran vows of retaliation—alongside hits on nuclear sites in Isfahan, the Pasteur Institute, and military infrastructure, while Iran launched missile salvos at Israel and targeted US assets. President Trump's speeches outline objectives to degrade Iran's missiles, navy, and proxy support but warn of expanded infrastructure attacks absent a deal, amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and surging oil prices; backchannel negotiations via Pakistan offer a potential off-ramp, though no ceasefire is confirmed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$63,059Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran persist into the fifth week of open conflict since late February 2026 surprise attacks that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with trader consensus reflecting sustained escalation rather than de-escalation signals. Recent developments include a US strike on April 2 destroying Iran's B1 bridge—killing civilians and prompting Tehran vows of retaliation—alongside hits on nuclear sites in Isfahan, the Pasteur Institute, and military infrastructure, while Iran launched missile salvos at Israel and targeted US assets. President Trump's speeches outline objectives to degrade Iran's missiles, navy, and proxy support but warn of expanded infrastructure attacks absent a deal, amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and surging oil prices; backchannel negotiations via Pakistan offer a potential off-ramp, though no ceasefire is confirmed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$63,059Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran persist into the fifth week of open conflict since late February 2026 surprise attacks that assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with trader consensus reflecting sustained escalation rather than de-escalation signals. Recent developments include a US strike on April 2 destroying Iran's B1 bridge—killing civilians and prompting Tehran vows of retaliation—alongside hits on nuclear sites in Isfahan, the Pasteur Institute, and military infrastructure, while Iran launched missile salvos at Israel and targeted US assets. President Trump's speeches outline objectives to degrade Iran's missiles, navy, and proxy support but warn of expanded infrastructure attacks absent a deal, amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and surging oil prices; backchannel negotiations via Pakistan offer a potential off-ramp, though no ceasefire is confirmed.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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