Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana

Name: Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana
Start: 2025-12-22T18:27:09.491Z
End: 2026-05-16T00:00:00.000Z

Política·Primárias

Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana

Julia Letlow 76%

John Fleming 18.0%

Bill Cassidy 11%

Julie Emerson <1%

NEW

May 16, 2026

Julia Letlow

$6,792 Vol.

76%

John Fleming

$0 Vol.

14%

Bill Cassidy

$0 Vol.

11%

Julie Emerson

$0 Vol.

<1%

Blake Miguez

$0 Vol.

<1%

Samuel “Sammy” Wyatt

$0 Vol.

<1%

Eric Skrmetta

$0 Vol.

<1%

Randall Arrington

$0 Vol.

<1%

Chris Holder

$0 Vol.

<1%

Xan John

$0 Vol.

<1%

Kathy Seiden

$0 Vol.

<1%

Tracy Dendy

$0 Vol.

<1%

Julia Letlow 76%

John Fleming 18.0%

Bill Cassidy 11%

Julie Emerson <1%

NEW

May 16, 2026

Julia Letlow

$6,792 Vol.

76%

John Fleming

$0 Vol.

14%

Bill Cassidy

$0 Vol.

11%

Julie Emerson

$0 Vol.

<1%

Blake Miguez

$0 Vol.

<1%

Samuel “Sammy” Wyatt

$0 Vol.

<1%

Eric Skrmetta

$0 Vol.

<1%

Randall Arrington

$0 Vol.

<1%

Chris Holder

$0 Vol.

<1%

Xan John

$0 Vol.

<1%

Kathy Seiden

$0 Vol.

<1%

Tracy Dendy

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana. If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Rep. Julia Letlow at 76.5% implied probability to win the Louisiana Republican Senate primary, driven by President Trump's December 23 endorsement praising her conservative record and House incumbency from Louisiana's 5th District. State Treasurer John Fleming trails at 12.7%, supported by his prior congressional service and alignment with Trump-era policies, while Sen. Bill Cassidy holds 10.5% amid ongoing uncertainty over his resignation timeline post-HHS nomination confirmation hearings. In the March 25, 2025, blanket primary for Cassidy's vacant seat, Letlow's fundraising lead—over $1 million raised—and statewide name recognition bolster her frontrunner status, with traders pricing in low odds for challengers like Rep. Julie Emerson amid sparse early polling.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado Mar 23, 2026, 1:44 PM UTC

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Julia Letlow" at 76%, followed by "John Fleming" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 76¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 22, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana" is "Julia Letlow" at 76%, meaning the market assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Fleming" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 76¢ for "Julia Letlow" in the "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 76% chance that "Julia Letlow" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 76¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 24¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana" market is scheduled to resolve on or around May 16, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana" market has a growing discussion of 2 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana

Vencedor das primárias republicanas do Senado da Louisiana

Regras

Contexto de Mercado

Contexto de Mercado

Comentários (2)

Top Holders

Cargos

Actividade

Frequently Asked Questions

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