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Política·MIDTERMS

IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Política·MIDTERMS

IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner

André Carson 92%

George Hornedo 4.0%

Destiny Scott Wells 3.1%

Denise Paul Hatch 1.4%

Polymarket
NEW

André Carson 92%

George Hornedo 4.0%

Destiny Scott Wells 3.1%

Denise Paul Hatch 1.4%

Polymarket
NEW

André Carson

$751 Vol.

92%

George Hornedo

$0 Vol.

4%

Destiny Scott Wells

$0 Vol.

3%

Denise Paul Hatch

$818 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Rep. André Carson commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability in the IN-07 Democratic primary due to his 18-year tenure in the heavily Democratic district (D+21 Cook PVI), history of lopsided primary victories—including an 85-point margin in 2024—and recent endorsements from the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, Indiana AFL-CIO, NEA Fund, and Indiana Political Action Committee for Education. Challengers George Hornedo (4%), a former Obama operative criticizing Carson's activity; Destiny Scott Wells (3%), a former statewide candidate; and Denise Paul Hatch (1.4%) filed in February after an immigration-focused debate, but lack comparable fundraising, name recognition, or institutional support. With the May 5 primary approaching—early voting starts April 7—scenarios like a Carson scandal, challenger funding surge, or low-turnout protest vote could shift odds, though historical incumbent advantages in safe districts make upsets rare.

Incumbent U.S. Rep. André Carson commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability in the IN-07 Democratic primary due to his 18-year tenure in the heavily Democratic district (D+21 Cook PVI), history of lopsided primary victories—including an 85-point margin in 2024—and recent endorsements from the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, Indiana AFL-CIO, NEA Fund, and Indiana Political Action Committee for Education. Challengers George Hornedo (4%), a former Obama operative criticizing Carson's activity; Destiny Scott Wells (3%), a former statewide candidate; and Denise Paul Hatch (1.4%) filed in February after an immigration-focused debate, but lack comparable fundraising, name recognition, or institutional support. With the May 5 primary approaching—early voting starts April 7—scenarios like a Carson scandal, challenger funding surge, or low-turnout protest vote could shift odds, though historical incumbent advantages in safe districts make upsets rare.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Rep. André Carson commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability in the IN-07 Democratic primary due to his 18-year tenure in the heavily Democratic district (D+21 Cook PVI), history of lopsided primary victories—including an 85-point margin in 2024—and recent endorsements from the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, Indiana AFL-CIO, NEA Fund, and Indiana Political Action Committee for Education. Challengers George Hornedo (4%), a former Obama operative criticizing Carson's activity; Destiny Scott Wells (3%), a former statewide candidate; and Denise Paul Hatch (1.4%) filed in February after an immigration-focused debate, but lack comparable fundraising, name recognition, or institutional support. With the May 5 primary approaching—early voting starts April 7—scenarios like a Carson scandal, challenger funding surge, or low-turnout protest vote could shift odds, though historical incumbent advantages in safe districts make upsets rare.

Incumbent U.S. Rep. André Carson commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability in the IN-07 Democratic primary due to his 18-year tenure in the heavily Democratic district (D+21 Cook PVI), history of lopsided primary victories—including an 85-point margin in 2024—and recent endorsements from the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, Indiana AFL-CIO, NEA Fund, and Indiana Political Action Committee for Education. Challengers George Hornedo (4%), a former Obama operative criticizing Carson's activity; Destiny Scott Wells (3%), a former statewide candidate; and Denise Paul Hatch (1.4%) filed in February after an immigration-focused debate, but lack comparable fundraising, name recognition, or institutional support. With the May 5 primary approaching—early voting starts April 7—scenarios like a Carson scandal, challenger funding surge, or low-turnout protest vote could shift odds, though historical incumbent advantages in safe districts make upsets rare.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado

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Frequently Asked Questions

"IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "André Carson" at 92%, followed by "George Hornedo" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is "André Carson" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "George Hornedo" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.