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CA-04 Vencedores da Primária

icon for CA-04 Vencedores da Primária

CA-04 Vencedores da Primária

$35,433 Vol.

2 jun 2026
Polymarket

$35,433 Vol.

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$7,406 Vol.

92%

Eric Jones

$6,295 Vol.

92%

Laurie MacKenzie

$710 Vol.

5%

Heath Fulkerson

$1,702 Vol.

2%

John Wesley Tyler

$1,794 Vol.

2%

Trevor Merrell

$10,817 Vol.

1%

Sharon Brown

$3,994 Vol.

1%

Mandy Ghusar

$2,715 Vol.

<1%

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Mike Thompson faces a notable Democratic primary challenge from Eric Jones in California's June 2 top-two primary for the 4th Congressional District. Redistricting under Proposition 50 incorporated additional rural and historically conservative counties, though the seat remains solidly Democratic. Both Thompson and Jones have raised and spent millions, with Jones deploying substantial personal funds, while Republican candidates including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar fragment opposition support. Bernie Sanders endorsed Jones. Under the jungle primary rules, the top two vote-getters advance regardless of party, positioning the leading Democrats as the strong consensus advancers with the contest occurring in two days.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$35,433
Data de Término
2 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Mike Thompson faces a notable Democratic primary challenge from Eric Jones in California's June 2 top-two primary for the 4th Congressional District. Redistricting under Proposition 50 incorporated additional rural and historically conservative counties, though the seat remains solidly Democratic. Both Thompson and Jones have raised and spent millions, with Jones deploying substantial personal funds, while Republican candidates including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar fragment opposition support. Bernie Sanders endorsed Jones. Under the jungle primary rules, the top two vote-getters advance regardless of party, positioning the leading Democrats as the strong consensus advancers with the contest occurring in two days.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$35,433
Data de Término
2 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-04 Vencedores da Primária" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Thompson" at 92%, followed by "Eric Jones" at 92%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CA-04 Vencedores da Primária" has generated $35.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CA-04 Vencedores da Primária," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-04 Vencedores da Primária" is "Mike Thompson" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Eric Jones" at 92%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-04 Vencedores da Primária" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.