Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability of a Republican win in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, driven by the district's extreme R+27 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the seventh most Republican nationally—and Smith's history of 76% general election margins, including 76.2% in 2024. The March 31 candidate filing deadline confirmed a crowded, underfunded Democratic primary field (Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, Christopher Reichard) with minimal cash on hand versus Smith's $4.7 million war chest, while his own primary challengers (Gordon Heslop, Johnathon Tune) pose little threat. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican. Upsets would require a primary shock, scandal, or unprecedented Democratic midterm surge, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the August 4 primaries.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoMO-08 Vencedor da eleição da Câmara
MO-08 Vencedor da eleição da Câmara
$26,704 Vol.
$26,704 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
94%
Partido Democrata
6%
$26,704 Vol.
$26,704 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$16,550 Vol.
94%
Partido Democrata
$10,155 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability of a Republican win in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, driven by the district's extreme R+27 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the seventh most Republican nationally—and Smith's history of 76% general election margins, including 76.2% in 2024. The March 31 candidate filing deadline confirmed a crowded, underfunded Democratic primary field (Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, Christopher Reichard) with minimal cash on hand versus Smith's $4.7 million war chest, while his own primary challengers (Gordon Heslop, Johnathon Tune) pose little threat. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican. Upsets would require a primary shock, scandal, or unprecedented Democratic midterm surge, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the August 4 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$26,704Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability of a Republican win in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, driven by the district's extreme R+27 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the seventh most Republican nationally—and Smith's history of 76% general election margins, including 76.2% in 2024. The March 31 candidate filing deadline confirmed a crowded, underfunded Democratic primary field (Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, Christopher Reichard) with minimal cash on hand versus Smith's $4.7 million war chest, while his own primary challengers (Gordon Heslop, Johnathon Tune) pose little threat. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican. Upsets would require a primary shock, scandal, or unprecedented Democratic midterm surge, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the August 4 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,704Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jason Smith (R) commands trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability of a Republican win in Missouri's 8th Congressional District, driven by the district's extreme R+27 Cook Partisan Voter Index—the seventh most Republican nationally—and Smith's history of 76% general election margins, including 76.2% in 2024. The March 31 candidate filing deadline confirmed a crowded, underfunded Democratic primary field (Frank Barnitz, Gerald Cass, Clayton Harbison, Christopher Reichard) with minimal cash on hand versus Smith's $4.7 million war chest, while his own primary challengers (Gordon Heslop, Johnathon Tune) pose little threat. Forecasters like Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican. Upsets would require a primary shock, scandal, or unprecedented Democratic midterm surge, though structural barriers remain high ahead of the August 4 primaries.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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