Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31, driven by U.S. Central Command's recent airstrikes obliterating additional IRGC Navy vessels, including fast-attack craft critical for asymmetric attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. No confirmed Iranian strikes on commercial or military ships have occurred in the past two weeks, following an early-March surge of around a dozen reported hits amid the war's onset; subsequent degradation of Iran's naval assets—over 40 vessels sunk or damaged—has shifted tactics toward threats and turnaways rather than direct action. Scenarios challenging this include unreported speedboat swarms, drone barrages, or verification of Iran's March 28 claim against a U.S. logistic ship, though U.S. air superiority limits feasibility before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHow many ships will Iran successfully target by March 31?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by March 31?
<5 97.0%
5–7 1.8%
8–10 <1%
20+ <1%
$63,595 Vol.
$63,595 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5
97%
5–7
2%
8–10
1%
11–13
1%
14–16
<1%
17–19
<1%
20+
1%
<5 97.0%
5–7 1.8%
8–10 <1%
20+ <1%
$63,595 Vol.
$63,595 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5
$22,831 Vol.
97%
5–7
$6,068 Vol.
2%
8–10
$7,541 Vol.
1%
11–13
$3,181 Vol.
1%
14–16
$5,493 Vol.
<1%
17–19
$3,020 Vol.
<1%
20+
$15,460 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31, driven by U.S. Central Command's recent airstrikes obliterating additional IRGC Navy vessels, including fast-attack craft critical for asymmetric attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. No confirmed Iranian strikes on commercial or military ships have occurred in the past two weeks, following an early-March surge of around a dozen reported hits amid the war's onset; subsequent degradation of Iran's naval assets—over 40 vessels sunk or damaged—has shifted tactics toward threats and turnaways rather than direct action. Scenarios challenging this include unreported speedboat swarms, drone barrages, or verification of Iran's March 28 claim against a U.S. logistic ship, though U.S. air superiority limits feasibility before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
Volume
$63,595Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31, driven by U.S. Central Command's recent airstrikes obliterating additional IRGC Navy vessels, including fast-attack craft critical for asymmetric attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. No confirmed Iranian strikes on commercial or military ships have occurred in the past two weeks, following an early-March surge of around a dozen reported hits amid the war's onset; subsequent degradation of Iran's naval assets—over 40 vessels sunk or damaged—has shifted tactics toward threats and turnaways rather than direct action. Scenarios challenging this include unreported speedboat swarms, drone barrages, or verification of Iran's March 28 claim against a U.S. logistic ship, though U.S. air superiority limits feasibility before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$63,595Data de Término
Mar 31, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran by March 31, driven by U.S. Central Command's recent airstrikes obliterating additional IRGC Navy vessels, including fast-attack craft critical for asymmetric attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. No confirmed Iranian strikes on commercial or military ships have occurred in the past two weeks, following an early-March surge of around a dozen reported hits amid the war's onset; subsequent degradation of Iran's naval assets—over 40 vessels sunk or damaged—has shifted tactics toward threats and turnaways rather than direct action. Scenarios challenging this include unreported speedboat swarms, drone barrages, or verification of Iran's March 28 claim against a U.S. logistic ship, though U.S. air superiority limits feasibility before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions