Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its March 12 meeting, driven by sticky core inflation and resilient economic indicators that reduce urgency for further easing. Headline CPI eased to 1.9% in December 2024, but core measures hovered above 2.5%, while unemployment held steady at 6.6% and wage growth exceeded 4%, signaling persistent price pressures amid a soft landing. Recent 75 basis points of cuts since June have calibrated policy without overheating, aligning with Governor Macklem's cautious rhetoric. Challenges include a sharper-than-expected GDP slowdown or sub-2% core inflation print, potentially shifting odds toward a 25 bps cut if growth falters.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoDecisão do Banco do Canadá em março?
Decisão do Banco do Canadá em março?
Sem mudança 100.0%
Redução de 50+ pontos-base <1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base <1%
Aumento <1%
$64,938 Vol.
$64,938 Vol.
Redução de 50+ pontos-base
Não
Redução de 25 pontos-base
Não
Sem mudança
Sim
Aumento
Não
Sem mudança 100.0%
Redução de 50+ pontos-base <1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base <1%
Aumento <1%
$64,938 Vol.
$64,938 Vol.
Redução de 50+ pontos-base
Não
Redução de 25 pontos-base
Não
Sem mudança
Sim
Aumento
Não
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its March 18, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its March 18, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's policy rate at its March 12 meeting, driven by sticky core inflation and resilient economic indicators that reduce urgency for further easing. Headline CPI eased to 1.9% in December 2024, but core measures hovered above 2.5%, while unemployment held steady at 6.6% and wage growth exceeded 4%, signaling persistent price pressures amid a soft landing. Recent 75 basis points of cuts since June have calibrated policy without overheating, aligning with Governor Macklem's cautious rhetoric. Challenges include a sharper-than-expected GDP slowdown or sub-2% core inflation print, potentially shifting odds toward a 25 bps cut if growth falters.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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