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Economia·Canadá

O Canadá terá a maior taxa de desemprego desde 2016 este ano?

Market icon
Economia·Canadá

O Canadá terá a maior taxa de desemprego desde 2016 este ano?

Sim

34% acaso
Polymarket
NOVO

Sim

34% acaso
Polymarket
NOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm. Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68% implied probability against Canada recording its highest unemployment rate since 2016 in 2026, as February's Labour Force Survey showed 6.7%—up 0.2 points from January but below the 7.1% non-pandemic peak hit in August 2025. This reflects cooling labor market pressures from sharply reduced immigration inflows, easing supply-side strains despite 84,000 net job losses last month. Bank of Canada rate cuts and projected 1% GDP growth underpin stabilization forecasts around 6.5-6.7%, per institutions like RBC and TD Economics. Upcoming March data release on April 4 and April 16 policy decision could sway sentiment if employment softens further.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.

Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Volume
$5,573
Data de Término
15 fev 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jan 29, 2026, 4:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm. Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm. Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68% implied probability against Canada recording its highest unemployment rate since 2016 in 2026, as February's Labour Force Survey showed 6.7%—up 0.2 points from January but below the 7.1% non-pandemic peak hit in August 2025. This reflects cooling labor market pressures from sharply reduced immigration inflows, easing supply-side strains despite 84,000 net job losses last month. Bank of Canada rate cuts and projected 1% GDP growth underpin stabilization forecasts around 6.5-6.7%, per institutions like RBC and TD Economics. Upcoming March data release on April 4 and April 16 policy decision could sway sentiment if employment softens further.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.

Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Volume
$5,573
Data de Término
15 fev 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jan 29, 2026, 4:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm. Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"O Canadá terá a maior taxa de desemprego desde 2016 este ano?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "O Canadá terá a maior taxa de desemprego desde 2016 este ano?" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"O Canadá terá a maior taxa de desemprego desde 2016 este ano?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "O Canadá terá a maior taxa de desemprego desde 2016 este ano?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "O Canadá terá a maior taxa de desemprego desde 2016 este ano?" is "O Canadá terá a maior taxa de desemprego desde 2016 este ano?" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "O Canadá terá a maior taxa de desemprego desde 2016 este ano?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.