Trader sentiment on Eurozone annual HICP inflation for 2026 reflects a tight contest between the 3.1%+ outcome at 39.5% implied probability and 2.8-3.0% at 34.6%, driven by the March 31 flash estimate showing annual inflation surging to 2.5% from February's 1.9%, fueled by soaring energy costs amid Middle East tensions and Iran conflict escalation. The ECB's March staff projections raised the 2026 average forecast to 2.6%—above its 2% target—from prior 1.9%, citing persistent services inflation at 3.2% and core measures near 2.4%, yet traders price in upside risks from oil price volatility and sticky wage growth. Key differentiators include potential ECB policy pauses and April CPI data, with resolution hinging on energy trajectory through year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoInflação Anual da Zona Euro 2026
Inflação Anual da Zona Euro 2026
3,1%+ 44.3%
2,8-3,0% 25.8%
2,2–2,4% 16.2%
2,5–2,7% 13.9%
NOVO
NOVO
19 jan 2027
<1,0%
4%
1,0–1,2%
5%
1,3–1,5%
10%
1,6–1,8%
12%
1,9–2,1%
13%
2,2–2,4%
16%
2,5–2,7%
12%
2,8-3,0%
35%
3,1%+
39%
3,1%+ 44.3%
2,8-3,0% 25.8%
2,2–2,4% 16.2%
2,5–2,7% 13.9%
NOVO
NOVO
19 jan 2027
<1,0%
$561 Vol.
4%
1,0–1,2%
$470 Vol.
5%
1,3–1,5%
$553 Vol.
10%
1,6–1,8%
$511 Vol.
12%
1,9–2,1%
$2,304 Vol.
13%
2,2–2,4%
$544 Vol.
16%
2,5–2,7%
$497 Vol.
12%
2,8-3,0%
$536 Vol.
35%
3,1%+
$950 Vol.
39%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone over the 12-month period ending December 2026 as reported by Eurostat.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.htmlTrader sentiment on Eurozone annual HICP inflation for 2026 reflects a tight contest between the 3.1%+ outcome at 39.5% implied probability and 2.8-3.0% at 34.6%, driven by the March 31 flash estimate showing annual inflation surging to 2.5% from February's 1.9%, fueled by soaring energy costs amid Middle East tensions and Iran conflict escalation. The ECB's March staff projections raised the 2026 average forecast to 2.6%—above its 2% target—from prior 1.9%, citing persistent services inflation at 3.2% and core measures near 2.4%, yet traders price in upside risks from oil price volatility and sticky wage growth. Key differentiators include potential ECB policy pauses and April CPI data, with resolution hinging on energy trajectory through year-end.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone over the 12-month period ending December 2026 as reported by Eurostat.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
Mercado Aberto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$6,926Data de Término
19 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone over the 12-month period ending December 2026 as reported by Eurostat.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.htmlTrader sentiment on Eurozone annual HICP inflation for 2026 reflects a tight contest between the 3.1%+ outcome at 39.5% implied probability and 2.8-3.0% at 34.6%, driven by the March 31 flash estimate showing annual inflation surging to 2.5% from February's 1.9%, fueled by soaring energy costs amid Middle East tensions and Iran conflict escalation. The ECB's March staff projections raised the 2026 average forecast to 2.6%—above its 2% target—from prior 1.9%, citing persistent services inflation at 3.2% and core measures near 2.4%, yet traders price in upside risks from oil price volatility and sticky wage growth. Key differentiators include potential ECB policy pauses and April CPI data, with resolution hinging on energy trajectory through year-end.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the Eurozone over the 12-month period ending December 2026 as reported by Eurostat.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
Volume
$6,926Data de Término
19 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Eurozone annual HICP inflation for 2026 reflects a tight contest between the 3.1%+ outcome at 39.5% implied probability and 2.8-3.0% at 34.6%, driven by the March 31 flash estimate showing annual inflation surging to 2.5% from February's 1.9%, fueled by soaring energy costs amid Middle East tensions and Iran conflict escalation. The ECB's March staff projections raised the 2026 average forecast to 2.6%—above its 2% target—from prior 1.9%, citing persistent services inflation at 3.2% and core measures near 2.4%, yet traders price in upside risks from oil price volatility and sticky wage growth. Key differentiators include potential ECB policy pauses and April CPI data, with resolution hinging on energy trajectory through year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions